Thursday, March 7, 2013

Nanos Poll: 31.5% Con. 29.1% Lib, 27.2% NDP

Nanos Research has come out with a new poll of federal voting intentions, showing a close three-way race and giving me a chance to test out the new redistribution model!

Nanos Research (Federal - February 19-24, 2013)
Conservative: 31.5% (-2.8%) - 127 seats (-24 seats)
Liberal Party: 29.1% (+1.5%) - 105 seats (+14 seats)
New Democratic: 27.2% (+0.1%) - 102 seats (+11 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21.2% (+1.4%) - 3 seats (-1 seat)
Green Party: 5.9% (+1.2%) - 1 seat

Compared to the last Nanos poll out last month, the results are definitely less definitive. All three parties are muddled, and even though the Conservatives have a plurality of seats, I couldn't imagine a stable Conservative minority forming out of this kind of situation. The Liberals and New Democrats together would have 207 (!) seats, and could form a gigantic coalition.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario (36.6% to the Con's 34.5%), but fall behind in Quebec (23.1%), where the NDP sit prettier than they have been recently with 37.4%. The Bloc also hits above 20%, something I haven't seen in a Nanos poll in a long time.

The Conservatives, as usual, dominate in Nanos' "Prairies" category, which ropes in Alberta with Saskitoba, 48.1% to the Liberal's 22.5% and the NDP's 21.6%.

British Columbia, however, is kind of funky. There we see a true 3-way race, with the NDP leading at 28.6%, the Cons at 27.3%, and the Liberals at 27.2%. The Greens also do well with 15.5%.

In the projection, the NDP would earn 15 seats to the Liberal's 14 and the Conservative's 12, plus Lizzy May. What a mess.

Anyways, we *should* be expecting a Forum poll out soon, which I'm looking forward to, especially if it has these questions in it. Someone's been doing some polling.

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