Sunday, March 31, 2013

Léger Canada Poll: 31% Con, 30% Lib, 24% NDP, and Trudeau Polling

Léger Marketing has put out yet another poll, this time focusing on federal politics and showing an awesome situation for the Liberals based solely on the topline numbers, as well as good news in hypothetical Trudeau-as-LPC-Leader polling.

Léger Marketing (Federal - March 25-28, 2013 - +/-2.5%)
Conservative: 31% (-4%) - 133 seats (-31 seats)
Liberal Party: 30% (+12%) - 107 seats (+63 seats)
New Democratic: 24% (-6%) - 54 seats (-58 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only) - 29% (=) - 42 seats (+27 seats)
Green Party: 7% (-2%) - 1 seat (-2 seats)
Independents: 1 seat (André Arthur)

Compared to Léger's last poll, out in December 2012, there has been an absolutely massive swing in favour of the Liberals, who climbed up a dozen points - well beyond the margin of error - at the expense of the Conservatives and especially the NDP. And remember, these are just the topline numbers.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in BC (35% to the NDP's 29% and the Liberal's 24%), and dominate as usual in Alberta and the Prairies. In Ontario, they're tied with the Liberals at 33% to their 34%, with the NDP sitting at 25%. Quebec sees an odd three-way race, with the Bloc leading at 29%, the Liberals second at 28%, and the NDP following with 24%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 44% to the NDP's 33% and the Con's 17% (the second poll to show them that low).

All of this adds up to a really good poll for the Liberals, giving us 49 seats in Ontario, 22 in Quebec, 21 in the Atlantic region, and 15 in Western Canada (7 BC, 2 AB, 6 Prairies). The NDP's only saving grace is their 25% in Ontario, which gives them 21 seats. They manage only 4 seats in Quebec.

This poll is more or less in line with the last Forum poll that was out for the federal scene, though conflicts with the Abacus poll I covered last week. Nevertheless, I think the evidence is fairly clear that the Liberals have momentum. The NDP are in trouble.

Here's the likely reason why, with Léger's Trudeau polling:

Léger Marketing (Federal - Trudeau as LPC Leader)
Liberal Party: 37% (+6%) - 143 seats (+24 seats)
Conservative: 30% (-1%) - 126 seats (-2 seats)
New Democratic: 20% (-4%) - 36 seats (-27 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 25% (-2%) - 32 seats (+5 seats)
Green Party: 5% (-2%) - 1 seat (=)
Independents: 1 seat (Arthur)

While not as impressive as Forum's numbers (though better than December's numbers) this Léger poll definitely confirms a "Trudeaumania" of sorts when you put him into the leadership position. The main issue, as always, if if these kinds of numbers would hold once Justin gets the leadership - as a realist, I'd say no, but these numbers show promise. No other candidate can bring up our numbers quite like Trudeau can.

The one issue is Quebec, where Trudeau only leads with 32%, compared to 25% each for the Bloc and NDP. Forum's numbers have put him in the 40%+ range, but its not so with Léger. That's why his numbers, while high, aren't that high.

Nevertheless, with 44% of the vote in Ontario, Trudeau manages to grab 71 seats to 37 for the Cons; 28 of Quebec's seats; 28 (of 32!) Atlantic seats; and 16 Western seats. The NDP are left with nothing but scraps - the way it should be.

Good poll, especially in the run up to our leadership convention. Can't wait to see what they're like after the 14th!

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