Friday, March 15, 2013

Ipsos Reid BC Poll: 51% NDP, 32% BC Liberal

Ipsos Reid has come out with a new poll for the provincial scene in British Columbia, their first one since November 2012, showing not too much change, except for some shifting numbers between the Liberals and the NDP.

Ipsos Reid (BC Provincial - March 8-12, 2013 - +/-3.1%)
New Democratic: 51% (+3%) - 64 seats (+3 seats)
BC Liberal Party: 32% (-3%) - 19 seats (-4 seats)
BC Conservative: 9% (=)
Green Party: 7% (=)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland) (+1 seat)

There isn't too much change since November, and this poll is generally in line with what we've been seeing from other companies - though Ipsos, contrary to some of the folks who call them a conservative-leaning company, has given the NDP their highest number in months.

Regionally, the NDP lead everywhere, with large leads in Greater Vancouver (53% to 32% for the Liberals) and Vancouver Island (56% to 31%), and a smallish but still significant lead in the Interior/North (43% to 34%). The Conservatives do their best in the Interior/North (13%), as do the Greens (9%).

There is some stuff Ipsos did about "Best Premier" and, er, who would make the best "Dinner Companion," which you can read in their press release here (I know it says "March 2008" up top, but it is for this 2013 release). It seems that, even though Clark is only preferred by 23% as "Best Premier," 31% consider he the best "Dinner Companion." 37% consider NDP Leader Adrian Dix as "Best Premier," though only 19% apparently want to have dinner with him.

Its nice to see that British Columbians aren't falling for that old "who'd you like to have a beer with?" routine that conservatives so often rely on. That being said, I do wonder why there is such a discrepancy - do people find Clark to have a more pleasant personality than Dix? Or maybe they just found the question stupid. I dunno.

Anyways, here's my new map for British Columbia, coloured based on the results of this poll in my projection system:


5 comments:

  1. And yesterday Campaign Research also released a BC opinion poll showing a 5% spread between the NDP and the Liberals.

    http://bc2013.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Press-release-BC-Poll-March-14.pdf

    Campaign Research has never conducted a BC opinion poll before albeit they released 3 polls during last years Alberta election campaign and their numbers were in line with other pollsters.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

    So I dunno.

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    1. Campaign Research is a notorious pollster that is uniformly biased towards the federal Conservatives, or at the very least always puts out numbers which fail to match with the general trend of other pollsters. In the 2011 federal race they gave the Conservatives something like 46% of the vote.

      But, I'll look into it.

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    2. Sorry, I got Campaign Research and COMPAS mixed up - two different companies, I think. Still, CR was censured not too long ago, and is still a known Conservative outfit.

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  2. I expected larger drop in liberals with the negative press from ethnicgate.

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    1. So did I, but I left the door open to the possibility of people not caring and supporting the Liberals despite, because they don't want to vote NDP or Conservative. Seems like maybe thats the case, though we should wait for more polls to come out.

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