Wednesday, March 20, 2013

I'm Part of the 8%

.... of federal Liberals under the age of 25 that have the opportunity to vote in the upcoming leadership race.

I feel very alone.

Even so, I'm not necessarily surprised. From the Leader-Post:
... an analysis of those registered to vote thus far suggests the race has attracted primarily older voters.
 
Of those for whom an age is known, 59 per cent are 50 years of age or older. Only eight per cent are under the age of 25.

Another 13 per cent are between the ages of 25 and 34 and 19 per cent are aged 35 to 49.
Over the past three elections, the Liberal party's base has shrunk steadily, concentrated in Toronto with pockets of support in Atlantic Canada, Vancouver and Montreal.

The registration numbers thus far show the party's base remains heavily concentrated in Ontario. It accounts for 46 per cent of registered voters, boosted by high membership and supporter numbers in Toronto ridings.

British Columbia accounts for the second largest chunk of registered voters, with just less than 13 per cent.

Despite the fact that, until recently, the contest boasted three leadership contenders from Quebec, the country's second-largest province accounts for just 11 per cent of registered voters.

Trudeau and rival contender Martin Cauchon both hail from Quebec. Montreal MP Marc Garneau dropped out and threw his support to Trudeau last week.

The four Atlantic provinces account for 14 per cent of registered voters, about double their share of the national population.

Now, I would understand if those in my age bracket are severely underrepresented, as we always are, whether its in leadership races or general elections. But the idea that 59% of registered voters, and probably a higher amount of voters in the end, are well over twice my age is a painful sight to see. It seems that youth voters are not necessarily as interested in Justin Trudeau was we've been told. I'm not surprised, but I am disheartened.

The regional disparities are also rather interesting, and they offer a way for us to possibly project the race. It would be better if we had actual numbers, riding-by-riding, but I can't find the source for this analysis - yet.

Combined together, Quebec and Ontario provide 55% of voters - they also provide 58.7% of all possible points. If, say, Trudeau's support was limited only to those two provinces, and limited only to a handful of ridings, then the possibility of Murray or Hall Findlay winning is good, so long as they build a cross-country coalition of voters.

But, let's not necessarily kid ourselves here. If Trudeau is somewhere between 60-70% of support, a good possibility, then he's likely going to have fairly broad support. It'll require the stars realigning themselves in impossible shapes for the other candidates to have a solid base of support behind them to work from.

If Trudeau falls below the 50% threshold, then I can see opportunities. An anti-Trudeau coalition would likely require the voters of other provinces outside central Canada to move en-masse behind another candidate, and that candidate getting sizeable portions of support in central Canada. Not impossible, not at all.

But, the speculation can get pretty wild. I'll be looking around for the analysis and see what I can do with it, hopefully get riding-by-riding, or at least regional breakdowns of where these voters are. Then we can have a proper look at what's going on in this race.

11 comments:

  1. What percentage do they have the age for? That would be useful information in interpreting these stats.

    Also who released this information to the media and why? It doesn't say. The way it is presented seems negative toward the LPC, so it seems unlikely it was the LPC that released it.

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    1. Um, 59% are +50, 19% are 35-49, 13% 25-34, 8% under 25.

      I'm not sure who released this, though I can see the LPC releasing it and the media not necessarily saying what the spin they're going to put on it is. However, I've looked over Liberal.ca and I can't see any releases to the public - either they haven't put it up yet, or they aren't.

      Also, I can see one of the campaigns possibly releasing these numbers.

      I don't know who else would have access, unless they've sent it out to riding presidents and other executives, and we have a Judas in our midst. I doubt its a poll, the article doesn't say it is.

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    2. I was referring to the statement "Of those for whom an age is known". Just wondering how many they have an age for.

      I doubt the LPC released this, because it is just a bunch of statistics at one point in time and they don't even know the age of all of them. I don't think the LPC would release something that half-baked midstream.

      Anyway, don't get disheartened. I find the media reports that are negative and don't give their source or refer to "someone in the Murray campaign who does not want to be named" or "rival camps" is just a bunch of negative politics. They think it will help them either by turning off voters for other candidates or energizing their own base.

      Given that people have until Thursday to mail in their registration, and they have to verify each registrant, they aren't going to know the final numbers until close to the end of March.

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  2. Do not Believe all you read in the media. They are paid off to spread the Harper government propaganda. That has been going on since he became PM. Let us show them that we mean business and we intend to kick that corrupted PM and his misfit entourage of ministers and MP's right out of parliament and hopefully right out of Canada.Let us also let the media know we are unto them and will no longer purchase their papers at all. Bombard them with emails, and whatever else it takes to get their attention.

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  3. I'm part of the 13%

    You are younger than I thought, Kyle.

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  4. Some numbers.

    Share of Liberal Members - Province name - Share of Population - Number of Seats - Share of seats


    46% - Ontario - 38% - 107 - 34%
    11% - Quebec - 24% - 75 - 24%
    13% - British Columbia - 13% - 36 - 12%
    14% - Atlantic Canada - 7% - 32 - 10%
    16% - Prairies and North - 18% - 59 - 19%

    The Prairie numbers are calculated based on what's remaining mathematically.

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    1. This means the only area we are significantly under-represented is Quebec. While we come in under on the Prairies, it is not by much at all.

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    2. Estimated Members.

      This presumes 300,000 supporters and members, and, presumes that those who have already registered are representative of the whole.

      Members - Province - Votes last election
      (all in thousands)
      138 ON 1400
      33 QC 538
      39 BC 251
      42 AT 333
      48 PR 259

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    3. Presuming each supporter/member equals 100 voters, this is what the next election would look like using the last election, without any other changes. (IE, making a projection based on membership numbers)


      Ontario:
      No change

      Quebec:
      We would lose every single one of our seats (7), with all but Mount Royal going NDP

      British Columbia
      Gain 2 seats, 1 from NDP, 1 from Tories.

      Atlantic
      Gain 4 seats, all but 1 from the Tories. 2 from NB, 1 from NS, and Labrador.

      Prairies +
      Gain 3 seats, all from the Tories in Winnipeg + Nunavut and Yukon.


      END RESULT:
      we are up 4 seats, but have lost all our seats in Quebec.




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    4. This would give us the following election:

      CPC - 159
      NDP - 107
      LIB - 38
      BQ - 4
      GRN - 1


      Despite our losses in Quebec, I say this would have been a far better result for us.
      Quebec likes to swing massively. It's the rare election (IE: 2000) where the province actually splits. Normally, the province will deliver 45 MPs for a single party. Quebec also has shown it will swing to and from parties that don't have a base there, and, will not swing to a party just because it does. Compare the ADQ and NDP victories to the strong of PC losses between 1965 and 1984, then the sudden PC sweep though the 80s.

      Losing all our Quebec seats might actually be the best thing to happen to the party. It'd force us to spend money in places where it actually can make a difference, and when Quebec is ready to come back to the Liberal fold, it will do so.

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