I feel very alone.
Even so, I'm not necessarily surprised. From the Leader-Post:
... an analysis of those registered to vote thus far suggests the race has attracted primarily older voters.
Of those for whom an age is known, 59 per cent are 50 years of age or older. Only eight per cent are under the age of 25.
Another 13 per cent are between the ages of 25 and 34 and 19 per cent are aged 35 to 49.
Over the past three elections, the Liberal party's base has shrunk steadily, concentrated in Toronto with pockets of support in Atlantic Canada, Vancouver and Montreal.
The registration numbers thus far show the party's base remains heavily concentrated in Ontario. It accounts for 46 per cent of registered voters, boosted by high membership and supporter numbers in Toronto ridings.
British Columbia accounts for the second largest chunk of registered voters, with just less than 13 per cent.
Despite the fact that, until recently, the contest boasted three leadership contenders from Quebec, the country's second-largest province accounts for just 11 per cent of registered voters.
Trudeau and rival contender Martin Cauchon both hail from Quebec. Montreal MP Marc Garneau dropped out and threw his support to Trudeau last week.
The four Atlantic provinces account for 14 per cent of registered voters, about double their share of the national population.
Now, I would understand if those in my age bracket are severely underrepresented, as we always are, whether its in leadership races or general elections. But the idea that 59% of registered voters, and probably a higher amount of voters in the end, are well over twice my age is a painful sight to see. It seems that youth voters are not necessarily as interested in Justin Trudeau was we've been told. I'm not surprised, but I am disheartened.
The regional disparities are also rather interesting, and they offer a way for us to possibly project the race. It would be better if we had actual numbers, riding-by-riding, but I can't find the source for this analysis - yet.
Combined together, Quebec and Ontario provide 55% of voters - they also provide 58.7% of all possible points. If, say, Trudeau's support was limited only to those two provinces, and limited only to a handful of ridings, then the possibility of Murray or Hall Findlay winning is good, so long as they build a cross-country coalition of voters.
But, let's not necessarily kid ourselves here. If Trudeau is somewhere between 60-70% of support, a good possibility, then he's likely going to have fairly broad support. It'll require the stars realigning themselves in impossible shapes for the other candidates to have a solid base of support behind them to work from.
If Trudeau falls below the 50% threshold, then I can see opportunities. An anti-Trudeau coalition would likely require the voters of other provinces outside central Canada to move en-masse behind another candidate, and that candidate getting sizeable portions of support in central Canada. Not impossible, not at all.
But, the speculation can get pretty wild. I'll be looking around for the analysis and see what I can do with it, hopefully get riding-by-riding, or at least regional breakdowns of where these voters are. Then we can have a proper look at what's going on in this race.