Monday, March 11, 2013

Forum Research Poll: 31% Con, 30% Liberal, 27% NDP

Forum Research, everyone's favourite and most trusted pollster, has come out with their monthly update on the federal scene in Canada, showing a tight three-way race between all major federal parties, but yet again a strong Liberal showing.

Forum Research (Federal - March 6-7, 2013 - +/- 2%)
Conservative: 31% (-1%) - 139 seats (+3 seats)
Liberal Party: 30% (=) - 103 seats (=)
New Democratic: 27% (+1%) - 80 seats (-4 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 22% (-2%) - 15 seats (+1 seat)
Green Party: 5% (+1%) - 1 seat (=)

Not much change since the last poll out in February, with the Conservatives and New Democrats losing and gaining a tad, maybe due to the fact that in February, that projection was under the old redistribution numbers. The Liberals  maintain the same number of seats as before.

Regionally, the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in battle, with the Cons winning 37% (same as in February) to the Liberal's 33% (down 1%), the NDP behind at 25%. In Quebec, the Liberals again lead with 31%, with the NDP rounding up second with 27% (down 2%), and then the Bloc. Once again a strong result in central Canada gives the Liberals just under 70 seats, a powerful base to work from.

In BC, the NDP lead with 35% (down 2%) to the Conservative's 32% (also down 2%), with the Liberals and Greens jumping up to 22% and 11% respectively. Alberta and the Prairies, as usual, see Conservative dominance (though in Alberta, where the Cons sit at 51% and the two Opposition parties at just above 20% a piece, we see an unprecedented 5 seats going to the non-Con options). In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead the New Democrats 40% to 32%, with the Conservatives very low at 22%.

Forum also did a couple of interesting breakdowns in this poll, asking respondents demographic questions ranging from whether they were born here, to what their religion is.

It seems, if you were born in Canada, you're more likely to vote New Democratic according to this poll, with the NDP sitting at 29% to the Liberal's 28% and the Con's 31%. If you were born outside of Canada, you're more likely to vote "red door/blue door," 36% supported the Conservatives and 38% supported the Liberals. Only 17% supported the NDP.

Skipping over the language stuff, we see a fun and traditional-ish breakdown of support among the religious. Protestants support the Conservatives (especially the evangelicals, 55%), as do "Other Christians," while the Liberals edged out among Catholics. The NDP won among those with "none," which is my category. That was the old idea, of course - Protestants voted Conservative, Catholics voted Liberal. Maybe its making a return? Or, maybe, it's just one poll.

Now, on to Trudeau polling!

Forum Research (Federal - Trudeau as LPC Leader)
Liberal Party: 39% (-2%) - 157 seats (-12 seats)
Conservative: 32% (+2%) - 126 seats (+16 seats)
New Democratic: 20% (=) - 37 seats (-11 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 20% (=) - 16 seats (+5 seats)
Green Party: 3% (+1%) - 1 seat (+1 seat)
Independent: 1 seat (André Arthur)

Trudeau's hypothetical numbers took a slight tumble, but the wunderkid still leads the Liberals to a rousing finish, 7-points ahead of the Conservatives and only needing the NDP to get to a majority.

The Liberals lead in Ontario (42% to 36% for the Cons), Quebec (41% to 21% for the NDP), and Atlantic Canada (50% to 25% for the Cons).

BC is a three-way race, with the Cons leading at 32% to 31% each for the NDP and Liberals. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta (54%) and the Prairies (49%).

The main question to ask in all this recent polling is why the Liberals are jumping in the polls, and the question continues to be asked. Is it just Trudeau's numbers leaking over into the regular topline numbers? Or is there significant movement to the Liberals that is independent of Trudeau? I personally hope for the latter - but that may be a bit hopeful.

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