Friday, March 15, 2013

Campaign Research Poll for BC: 39% NDP, 33% BC Liberal

Campaign Research, a pollster which has been censured by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) for its lovely work spreading lies about Irwin Cotler, has come out with a new poll for British Columbia. Contrary to what I thought before, this is not the same firm that gave Harper 46% of the vote during the 2011 election - but Campaign Research is a known Conservative outfit, so take the numbers as you will. To point out, they did do well as the rest of the pollsters during the Alberta general election, which isn't saying much but at least they weren't showing out-of-line numbers.

Campaign Research (BC Provincial - March 12, 2013 - +/- 2.9%)
New Democratic: 38% - 51 seats
BC Liberal Party: 33% - 30 seats
BC Conservative: 13% - 2 seats
Green Party: 12%
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

These numbers, however, are slightly off the current trend we've seen of total NDP domination, usually above 45%. The closest polls from other companies that came to these numbers, in terms pf NDP support, are the EKOS poll from last month, and a Mustel poll from January.

So, it is a little odd. Eric Grenier at 308.com mentioned in the comments section of a post on a different subject that he's concerned about the MRIA censure, and I am as well - but I'll tentatively add this poll into my rolling average. The MRIA censure focused on their actions in regards to the Mont-Royal calls, which were done on behalf of the Conservatives. This poll seems to likely have been done of their own accord, and they promise to be a consistent pollster throughout the upcoming campaign. I'll give them a pass - for now.

Anyways, I'm going to be doing some tweaking of my BC projection system tonight. Its hard to balance this thing out, given the rise of the Conservatives which ran in not even half of the ridings in 2009, but is looking fairly set on getting at least 75-80 candidates out of 85, maybe even the full 84 they're promising (no candidate will be running in Delta South versus Vicki Huntington). I've seen some issues with vote distribution, especially when I compare it to 308.com's BC section, or Bryan Breguet's Too Close to Call site.

But, I shall endeavour to fix it.

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