Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Redistribution 2013 - Montréal

Finally, the Redistribution Commissions in Quebec and Ontario have come out with their reports, setting up the final stage of our redistribution process. You can view everything here at the Commission's website, as well as check out some of my previous posts for the Commission Reports in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland.

For this post, I'll be focusing on Quebec, and at a later date I'll be looking at Ontario. Given how vast these provinces are, I'll probably only be looking at specific areas. In Quebec's case, this will be Montréal, where all the Liberals are. In Ontario's case, it'll be in the GTA and some of the smaller cities - though, spoiler, not much has changed in Ontario from the original proposal, even in the GTA. I did a post on that before too, and most of it holds up.

I'd also suggest a look at Ontario Projections post on this matter (not my page up top, that's different), which covered a lot of the Report as well. That author's site is also a great one to follow.

Anyways, on to Montréal!

Click for larger image.
... and there's a lot of ground to cover.

The Commission's Report (which you can read here) will put 22 ridings in Montréal-Laval (18 on the Island of Montréal, 4 in Laval), plus 8 ridings on the South Shore and 7 ridings on the North Shore. Thus, the Montréal Region will have 37 of the province's 78 ridings, which includes two of the three new ridings that had to be slotted in there for purposes of vote-grabbing.

The nice part of this new Report is that the ridings are no longer named after people, like was originally proposed for most of them. Only the currently existing ridings of Honoré-Mercier and Alfred-Pellan will stay (and I suppose Bourassa and Papineau), but ones like Pierre-Legardeur (Repentigny) and Paul-Ragueneau (Laval-Les-Îles) forever banished. Good.

I'll go over these ridings by section, starting with the North Shore, then Laval, then Montréal proper, then the South Shore.

Let's start with....

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles. This riding, called Paul-Sauvé under the original proposal, will follow much of what the current riding covers, taking in the towns of Deux-Montagnes, Saint-Eustache, and Boisbrand - however, it will lose the western community of Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac, but gain the eastern community of Rosemère, originally apart of Marc-Aurèle-Fortin in the 2003 order. This is an easy NDP hold, with the Bloc as competition.

Blainville. Originally called Mille-Îles, this is one of the new ridings that Quebec is slated to get, taking up the communities of Blainville, Sainte-Thérèse, Lorraine, and Bois-de-Filon in the North Shore. Covers the Blainville portion of Terrebonne-Blainville. Easy NDP pickup.

Terrebonne. This riding is exactly how it sounds, covering the community of Terrebonne, as well as the western community of Saint-Louis-de-Terrebonne, the northern communities of La Plaine, and the eastern community of Lachenaie. Another NDP hold, probably for current MP Charmaine Borg.

Montcalm. The main portion of this riding will be the community of Mascouche in the south, right above Terrebonne, though it extends farther north and takes in quite a few smaller and more rural communities. NDP hold.

Repentigny. Formerly "Pierre Legardeur," the riding is more or less the same as it is now, covering Repentigny, L'Assomption, and so on. The only portion. taken out is the community of L'Épiphanie.

Mirabel. This is another new riding, which will be a collection of smallish communities, including the previously mentioned Sainte-Marthe, Saint-Javier just north of Blainville, Saint-Augustin, and other communities. Most of it used to be apart of the current riding of Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel. As you may have guessed, NDP hold.

Rivière-du-Nord. Not pictured, but more or less the same riding as the current one. It takes in Saint-Jérôme, Prévost, and other communities. NDP hold.

On to Laval....

Laval-les-Îles. This former Liberal stronghold under Raymonde Folco that went heavily NDP in 2011 hasn't changed too much, still covering the western Laval communities of Fabreville, Laval-Ouest, Sainte-Dorothée, and the western portion of Chomedey between Blvd. Curé-Labelle and Autoroute Chomedey.  However, under the Report's boundaries, its been cut off at Rue Saint-Martin, losing some Chomedey polls and farther north, after being cut off at the Autoroute, some Fabreville polls. Should be an NDP hold, but like I mentioned, this was at one point a Liberal stronghold.

Sainte-Rose. Very basic riding, Sainte-Rose will take in the northern communities of Laval, currently covered by Marc-Aurèle-Fortin and Laval. Should be a strong NDP riding.

Vimy. This covers most of the current riding of Laval, taking in the eastern half of Chomedey and the communities of Saint-Martin, Laval-des-Rapides, and Pont-Viau. It also takes in some Vimont polls. NDPland.

Alfred-Pellan. This riding is essentially like the current one, minus Pont-Viau. It covers the communities of Duvernay, Saint-Vincent-de-Paul, and Saint-François, as well as most of Vimont. Yet another NDP hold, though there are strong Liberal elements in this riding.

Now on to the Island of Montréal itself, going from west to east.

Lac-Saint-Louis and Pierrefonds-Dollard. Both of these ridings, which cover most of the anglophone-heavy West Island, haven't changed (except for a small poll in Lac-Saint-Louis). Current Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia and NDP MP Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe will have very familiar territory to fight in, and both are fairly competitive ridings for all three parties.

Saint Laurent. This is somewhat the successor riding for Stéphane Dion, covering the community of Saint-Laurent, but taking out the community of Cartierville and Saraguay. Should be a safeish riding for the Liberals, as Saint-Laurent is a staunch federalist riding federally and provincially (its held by current PLQ Interim leader Jean-Marc Fournier). Though, there are quite a lot of Liberal polls that were in Cartierville taken out, which could shift the balance of power. This is a much better riding that the originally proposed Macdonald-Langstaff, which combined Saint-Laurent with the Pierrefonds-Dollard community of Roxboro, making this a much more competitive riding, but also a somewhat nonsensical one.

Ahuntsic-Cartierville. The current riding of Ahuntsic, held barely by Bloc MP Maria Mourani in 2011, should end up becoming a likely Liberal riding after the Commission paired it with the Liberal-heavy community of Cartierville. The originally proposed riding of Maurice-Richard, which combined Ahuntsic with some Villeray polls, has been obliterated, causing the lose of Montréal's only extra riding (oh well). This riding could be competitive, but I think we tick this into the Liberal's column for now.

Mont-Royal. No change from the current riding, which could mean another tough fight for Irwin Cotler.

Dorval-Lachine. This riding will take in most of the current riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine, except for the NDG part. Instead, Dorval-Lachine will take in the northern half of the community of LaSalle, and some Liberal ridings. But, sadly, this should stay a strong NDP riding.

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount. This would likely be the riding where Marc Garneau would run, given that it covers the strong Liberal community of Westmount, and also the somewhat-favourable to the Liberals NDG. This should make for a safer riding for Marc and the Liberals, though the NDP do have a significant presence there as well. Very similar to the originally proposed Wilder-Penfield riding, but with a better name.

LaSalle-Verdun. Pretty much what it says, taking in the community of Verdun and the southern portion of LaSalle, as well as Saint-Paul. However, Nuns Island, part of the current riding of Jeanne-Le-Ber (which covers Verdun), will no longer be apart of the riding.

Ville-Marie. This new riding covering downtown Montréal will be a strong NDP riding, taking in all the friendliest parts of the old riding of Westmount-Ville Marie and some portions of Laurier-Sainte-Marie and Jeanne-Le-Ber. Outside of the two Gatineau ridings and Outremont, it may in fact become one of the safest NDP ridings.

Outremont. Thomas Mulcair lucked out with this Commissioner's Report, as he would have seemingly had a slightly more difficult fight on his hands under the original proposal. Those boundaries had taken in Liberal-friendly parts of Mont-Royal and Westmount-Ville Marie, while cutting out some heavily NDP polls in the Plateau. With this report, however, Outremont expands its boundaries to take in Mile End and the Plateau, while retaining most of its current shape (except for the big park in the south). This should make Outremont an even stronger NDP riding, as it takes in polls from Laurier-Sainte-Marie which turned orange quickly in 2011.

Laurier-Sainte-Marie. Gilles Duceppe's old riding will shrink a bit, losing Mile End in the north but gaining a few polls in the southeast from Hochelaga riding. This should stay NDP, though it loses quite a few friendly polls to Outremont, thus possibly strengthening the hand of the Bloc in the riding.

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Papineau. The ridings of Liberal wunderkid Justin Trudeau and rising NDP star Alexandre Boulerice will see very little in the way of changes, keeping all of their current riding's polls, with the addition of a few polls here and there. Both should stay with their respective parties.

Saint-Léonard-Villeray. Liberal MP Massimo Pacetti must be damn happy with this successor riding. Under the original proposal, the riding of Saint-Léonard combined its namesake community, a strong Liberal area, with the even stronger NDP polls in the north of Hochelaga, just above Parc Maissoneuve. This caused the Liberals to actually lose the advantage in the riding, as many of Pacetti's best polls in his current riding of Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel were in the western half, not in the eastern portion where Saint-Léonard is. However, the Commission Report has seen fit to restore most of the old boundaries of the current riding, giving the Liberals back the advantage. Its still a fairly competitive riding, mind you.

Bourassa and Honoré-Mercier. These ridings, represented respectively by the Liberal's Denis Coderre and the NDP's Paulina Ayala, will not see too much change. Bourassa's boundares shifted a little more south, but retains its core Liberal polls. Honoré-Mercier, which was a competitive riding in 2011 and represented by Liberal Pablo Rodriguez before them, retains most of its polls except for a dozen or so NDP polls in the south that were shifted into La-Pointe-de-l'Île. Should still be competitive, but I preferred the original proposal for that riding, which would've seen the northern community of Rivière-des-Prairies and the southern community of Anjou form the cores of their own separate ridings. It also would've diffused the concentrated NDP vote in Honoré-Mercier and La-Pointe-de-l'Île, and giving the Liberals a shot in two ridings, instead of putting us all in one. Ah well.

Hochelaga and La Pointe-de-l'Île. These ridings will more or less retain their current shape, except for exchanging a few polls between the latter to the former on their border, which will inevitably make Hochelaga more NDP and La Pointe-de-l'Île slightly less so.

Finally, we get to the South Shore.

Verchères-Les Patriotes. This riding which would be a strong Bloc target for 2015 retains most of its current borders, except for the lose of the community of Sainte-Julie the in the south to Montarville. However, to make that up, it now incorporates all of Boucherville, which is split up between Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher and VLP right now.

Longueuil.This riding will indeed take in the city of Longueuil, but will also take in most of the community of Saint-Hubert in the south as well. Both are heavily NDP areas, so there shouldn't be too much of a problem here for incumbent MP Pierre Nantel.

Montarville. This new configuration of a riding will take in most of the current riding of Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert, minus most of the last part. Instead, it will be Saint-Bruno alongside Sainte-Julie and Saint-Basile-le-Grand, and small portion of southern Saint-Hubert. Yet another strong NDP riding.

LeMoyne. This riding, yet another new configuration of the South Shore, will be a strong NDP hold, taking in much of the core of Longueuil and the communities of LeMoyne and Laflèche. It is oddly shaped, though, but takes in a lot of polls that they couldn't put anywhere else, I suppose.

Brossard-Saint-Lambert. This riding should be interesting. Under the Report's boundaries, Brossard is combined with the community of Saint Lambert (previously in its own riding), which are are the only areas on the South Shore where the Liberals are competitive. Brossard-La Prairie was held by the Liberals before 2011, and Saint-Lambert is a perennial target for us. While it will likely be NDP in the initial count, this would be an easy pick-up for the Liberals if we boosted our numbers in the province.

La Prairie. This is the third new riding in the Montréal area, taking in the communities of Saint-Constant, Sainte-Catherine, Candiac, La Prairie, as well as the First Nations reservation of Kahnawake, into one big riding. These are strong NDP areas and should remain so.

Châteauguay-Lacolle and Vaudreuil. These two ridings are sort of peripheral but part of the Montréal region nonetheless. Châteauguay-Lacolle will take in the communities of Châteauguay, and stretch far south to the US border, incorporating along the way Napierville, Saint-Michel, Sainte-Martine, and Lacolle. Its a big, rurban riding that doesn't necessarily make too much sense, but I can't see how they could do it any different. Vaudreuil will take in the northern portion of the current Vaudreuil-Soulanges riding, inclduing Rigaud, Hudson, Vaudreuil-Dorion, and L'Île-Perrot.

Phew.

I'll be updating my Redistribution page soon as well, specifically the seats chart. While I won't be able to put down the exact transposed numbers for these ridings (yet), I can put down some educated guesses. I'll do that for now, and try to get it all up to date.

7 comments:

  1. is Cotler running in the next election? The man will be 75

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    1. There was a rumour for awhile that he wasn't, but I don't think there's anything definitive.

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  2. Thanks for the shoutout. I'll add your site to the list.

    Did you use some geo software to draw your lines? Did the commission make a shapefile available?

    I am glad too that the ridings are named after toponymy and not random names drawn from a hat. They wouldn't have helped anyone get to the polls. "C'est où, Idola-Saint-Jean?"

    It really is impressive to see how many polls the NDP swept in Québec. But some of the longer-standing NDP MPs aren't convinced that the new ones are very serious about doing what it takes to hold onto their seats.

    Meanwhile Maria Mourani will probably get a lot of out-of-riding support.

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    1. Thank you for your site, I found it only a couple of weeks ago but I'm definitely impressed. You've got a lot of good information on there, a great resource for me!

      I use geo software, downloading the .shp files from Elections Canada. Then I had to colour in EVERY poll, and then I made the boundaries delineating the new ridings through very careful attention to detail! Luckily the Commission likes to use current poll boundaries for the new riding's boundaries, so if you know where to look, you can get it 99.9% accurate. I know I've nicked it in a couple of places, but that was due to me being unable to undo it at that point.

      It is amazing, isn't it? I usually use Cedric Sam's creation for getting poll-level results, and he has results going back to 2006. Its amazing to see the difference in those Quebec ridings from 2006, to 2008, then to 2011 - the change is so drastic and so sudden, because there isn't an obvious buildup of NDP polls in these ridings. From one election to the next, it just snaps. I made an big, huge poll-level map of southern Quebec - the orange is almost blinding to see. Those guys definitely pulled off an amazing feat in 2011 - but if what you say is true, maybe it was all for naught.

      As for Mourani, I can't see her keeping Ahuntsic-Cartierville, not with the latter now apart of the riding. That definitely tips the balance in favour of the Liberals in a close race. She would need to pretty much sweep Ahuntsic to counterbalance Cartierville. That's a tall order, indeed.

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    2. I'll try to put up more consistent / comparable / useable info.

      What geo software do you use? I'd like to get more into that, but I can't make heads or tails of it. haha

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    3. I use the .shp files provided from Elections Canada/ON/QC/etc. and some other resources out there, they're very easy to use once you can find them. I use a free program called ShpView, which allows you to view the files without anti-aliasing, which allows you to use Paint or whatever program to basically fill in the outlines.

      Its very crude and doesn't allow for some of the fancier stuff, but it gets the job done if you're willing to put the time into it. I work a job with quiet hours where I sit and do nothing, so this is a great filler for me.

      That being said, if you ever have access to programs like ArcGIS, which are very very expensive, you can do amazing things. My personal goal is to create flash maps of polls, much like CBC uses for their election coverage (except they focus on ridings). But, that requires money, and I have none!

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