Monday, February 25, 2013

Nanos Ontario Poll: 33.7% PC, 33.6% OLP, 26.5% NDP

Nanos Research has released a new poll for Ontario's provincial scene, though technically its a poll that is a bit old, done in early February versus the most recent Forum poll, done on the 20th. So the levels of support we see in this poll are post-Wynne win, but not post-Throne Speech.

Nanos Research (Ontario Provincial - February 1-10, 2013)
Ontario Liberal Party: 33.6% (-0.4%) - 47 seats (+2 seats)
Prog. Conservative: 33.7% (-1.0%) - 38 seats (-4 seats)
New Democratic: 26.5% (+4.4%) - 22 seats (+2 seats)
Green Party: 5.4% (-1.4%)

Compared to Nanos' last poll for Ontario out in August 2012, the Liberals, PCs, and Greens dropped, while the NDP jumped up in support a goodly sum. However, unlike other polls, the NDP aren't hitting near 30% in this poll, with the Liberals and Tories fighting for first place. However, the Liberals continue to end up first thanks to their inherent strength in the riding-plentiful GTA.

Not sure what conclusion to draw from this, given that Nanos hasn't produced a provincial poll for half a year, and generally boosts up Liberal numbers in their pre-writ polling (they're usually one of the most accurate pollsters when elections are called). At the very least, it does fall somewhat in with other recent pollsters.

No regionals, but I do have a map. That's good enough, right?


  1. Are you disappointed like I am that the Liberals are .1% behind? It may not matter in terms of who gets to most seats but symbolically I wanted Nanos's first poll after Wynne's win to show the Liberals in first place. For me .1% behind is painfully close but not quite there. What do you think?

    1. Psychologically speaking, it is sad to see we're so close yet still behind. No one really likes it when a party wins an election but fails to win the popular vote. It almost feels like you've cheated, but hey, that's the quirks of the FPTP system.

      But, really, its all down to the margin of error. We *could* be ahead of the PCs, or we could be farther behind. At the very least, we know its probably very competitive right now, between all three parties. I'm satisfied with that, because before we were in a solid third place. I'd rather be .1% behind than 10 points behind!