Friday, February 15, 2013

Ekos Ontario Poll: 32.5% OLP, 28.5% PC, 25.6% NDP

A second Ekos poll has come out today, this time focusing on Ontario instead of British Columbia. This is Ekos' first provincial poll for Ontario since October 2011, and the second poll since Kathleen Wynne became Liberal leader to show the Liberals leading the two Opposition parties. Can you say momentum?

Ekos Research (Ontario Provincial - February 1-10, 2013)
Ontario Liberal: 32.5% - 49 seats
Prog. Conservative: 28.5% - 32 seats
New Democratic: 25.6% - 25 seats
Green Party: 10.1% - 1 seat

Well, sort of. While the Liberals are ahead, there is an obvious three-way race going on here, and 32.5% isn't far above Abacus' 30% or Innovative's 31%. The main difference is that the spread between the PCs and the Liberals is definitely larger, even outside of the margin of error (2.6). Heck, it's even larger than the spread in the October 2011 election - 2.2%. This gives the Liberals a relatively strong hand in comparison to its competition, even sitting at such a low level.

While the Green number is a tad high at 10.1%, it isn't out of line; Innovative had the Greens at 9%, though Abacus had them at 5%. Like the BC poll, there is also a larger "Others" vote, this time at 3.3%, but it isn't that insane. Unlike the BC poll, we have regionals.

The Liberals lead in Toronto (39.5%) and Eastern Ontario (36.3%), with the NDP coming up second in the former (27.2%) and the PCs following closely behind in the latter (34.5%).

There's a close three-way race in the "GTA suburbs," aka the 905 Region, with the PCs barely leading with 31.8%, following by the NDP at 28.9% and the Liberals at 27.9%. The same goes for Southwestern Ontario, with the PCs leading with 31%, the Liberals at 29.4%, and the NDP at 26.9%.

Northern Ontario is where things get wonky. Ekos has broken it up into two regions, Northwestern Ontario and Northeastern & Central Ontario - what ridings comprise Ekos' "Central Ontario" I can't be sure, but I assume it covers Parry Sound-Muskoka. This is where the Greens win their one seat, thanks to winning 16.1% overall in NE & Central Ontario - the Liberals lead in the region with 28.5%, followed by the NDP at 26.1% and the PCs at 23.3%. In NW Ontario, the NDP lead with 30.4%, followed closely by the Liberals and PCs

Overall, "Northern Ontario" comes out at 28.4% Liberal, 26.9% NDP, 24% PC, and 14.9% Green.

Here's a map to go with the numbers:


  1. If the poll numbers for the Greens are correct, Parry Sound is indeed one of the ridings where they are strongest.

    I, however, do not think the poll numbers for the Greens are correct.

    Owen Sound, and Dufferin are other areas the Greens are very strong. They also seem to have slowly growing strength in the entire area from Sarnia to Kitchener to Barrie, to Sudbury, specifically, the area to the north/west of this line.

    1. This, btw, marks the "Green Party Heartland" of Ontario. The same "Heartland" in BC would cover the area from Victoria, to Nanaimo to Whislter, and also encompass "down town" Vancouver.