Monday, February 18, 2013

Ekos Canada Poll: 29.3% Con, 26.3% NDP, 24.6%

In what I hope is the last Ekos poll out this week, Frank Graves' polling company has released new results showing a hilariously low result for all three main parties, with no one reaching above 30% support nationally - except in a very special circumstance, which I'll talk about in a second.

Ekos Research (Federal - February 1-10, 2013)
Conservative: 29.3% (-2.2%) - 134 seats
Liberal Party: 24.6% (+0.2%) - 93 seats
New Democratic: 26.3% (+0.5%) - 75 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 29.2% (+1.5%) - 35 seats
Green Party: 9.5% (+1.1%) - 1 seat

I didn't cover the last Ekos poll out in December 2012, but Eric at did. There hasn't been all that much change from that poll to be honest, with the Conservatives dropping a couple of percentage points, the two main Opposition parties up very slightly, and the Bloc and Greens up a little more. As with the BC and Ontario Ekos polls, there is also a larger-than-usual "Others" number, this time 3.2%.

In the regionals, the biggest races are in Ontario and Quebec. In the former, the Conservatives lead with 31.7%, with the Liberals a close second at 28.7% and the NDP also close by with 26.5%. While you look at these numbers and think everyone's low, just remember where both the Liberals (25.3%) and NDP (25.6%) were in the May 2011 election. Both of those parties are up, and the Conservatives (44.4%) are way down. It works only to the Opposition's advantage.

In Quebec, we see the Bloc leading with 29.2% support, followed by the NDP at 28.4%, the Liberals at 22%, and the Conservatives at 10.5%. Like with Ontario, the main party - this time the NDP - while the main opposition is up. The Bloc, even sitting below 30% support, is up from its 24% support in the last election. That 5-point bump is enough to win back over half of the province's seats, leaving the NDP with 20 seats to the Liberal's 19 and the Conservative's 4 seats.

Western Canada is pretty much dominated by the Conservatives, except for BC where they sit at 34%, followed by the NDP at 29.2%, the Liberals at 19%, and the Greens at 14.2%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 37.5%.

Ekos also did something interesting, though failed to expand upon it.

With a "likely voters" screen, Ekos' numbers look a lot less wonky and a lot more like other pollsters. The Conservatives and NDP jump up significantly, while everyone else drops, including the Liberals. Its common knowledge that the Conservatives tend to out-perform their poll numbers by a point or two - this shows exactly why.

There are no regionals, unfortunately. However, I did the next best thing, and did a basic swing, and got 155 Conservative, 96 NDP, 63 Liberal, 23 Bloc, and Lizzy May. Its definitely a big difference, especially for the New Democrats, who would otherwise end up in third place.

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