Monday, February 18, 2013

Ekos Canada Poll: 29.3% Con, 26.3% NDP, 24.6%

In what I hope is the last Ekos poll out this week, Frank Graves' polling company has released new results showing a hilariously low result for all three main parties, with no one reaching above 30% support nationally - except in a very special circumstance, which I'll talk about in a second.

Ekos Research (Federal - February 1-10, 2013)
Conservative: 29.3% (-2.2%) - 134 seats
Liberal Party: 24.6% (+0.2%) - 93 seats
New Democratic: 26.3% (+0.5%) - 75 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 29.2% (+1.5%) - 35 seats
Green Party: 9.5% (+1.1%) - 1 seat

I didn't cover the last Ekos poll out in December 2012, but Eric at 308.com did. There hasn't been all that much change from that poll to be honest, with the Conservatives dropping a couple of percentage points, the two main Opposition parties up very slightly, and the Bloc and Greens up a little more. As with the BC and Ontario Ekos polls, there is also a larger-than-usual "Others" number, this time 3.2%.

In the regionals, the biggest races are in Ontario and Quebec. In the former, the Conservatives lead with 31.7%, with the Liberals a close second at 28.7% and the NDP also close by with 26.5%. While you look at these numbers and think everyone's low, just remember where both the Liberals (25.3%) and NDP (25.6%) were in the May 2011 election. Both of those parties are up, and the Conservatives (44.4%) are way down. It works only to the Opposition's advantage.

In Quebec, we see the Bloc leading with 29.2% support, followed by the NDP at 28.4%, the Liberals at 22%, and the Conservatives at 10.5%. Like with Ontario, the main party - this time the NDP - while the main opposition is up. The Bloc, even sitting below 30% support, is up from its 24% support in the last election. That 5-point bump is enough to win back over half of the province's seats, leaving the NDP with 20 seats to the Liberal's 19 and the Conservative's 4 seats.

Western Canada is pretty much dominated by the Conservatives, except for BC where they sit at 34%, followed by the NDP at 29.2%, the Liberals at 19%, and the Greens at 14.2%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 37.5%.

Ekos also did something interesting, though failed to expand upon it.


With a "likely voters" screen, Ekos' numbers look a lot less wonky and a lot more like other pollsters. The Conservatives and NDP jump up significantly, while everyone else drops, including the Liberals. Its common knowledge that the Conservatives tend to out-perform their poll numbers by a point or two - this shows exactly why.

There are no regionals, unfortunately. However, I did the next best thing, and did a basic swing, and got 155 Conservative, 96 NDP, 63 Liberal, 23 Bloc, and Lizzy May. Its definitely a big difference, especially for the New Democrats, who would otherwise end up in third place.

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