Friday, February 15, 2013

Ekos BC Poll: 39% NDP, 27.4% BC Lib, 14.6% BC Con, 13.5% Green

Ekos has put out its first provincial poll in... well, quite a long time, to be honest. The last Ekos poll for any province was done during Quebec's provincial election last September, and the last time Ekos did released a poll for BC's provincial scene was... never. So, hey, we get to see this novel new thing!

Ekos Research (BC Provincial - February 1-10, 2013)
New Democratic: 39.0% - 59 seats
BC Liberal Party: 27.4% - 20 seats
BC Conservative: 14.6% - 2 seats
Green Party: 13.5% - 1 seat
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)
"Others": 1 seat (Vernon-Monashee)

As always with Ekos, there are some funny numbers. Though I have no comparisons (Ekos did do an unreleased Nov-Dec. poll apparently, as its compared in this one, but I won't bother with that) except with other pollsters, we see that the NDP are down majorly, while the Greens are somewhat higher than other polls have put them that. However, the recent Angus Reid, Mustel, and Justason polls all had the Greens in double digits, so it isn't that crazy. The one seat the Greens lead in is West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Country.

Both the Liberal and Conservative numbers are relatively in line with other recent polls. What is different, however, is that Ekos has a rather large "Others" category - 5.5% of decided respondents. I've seen this in past Ekos polls, though not necessarily to this large of an extent. Usually with the federal polls, Ekos tends to get 2-4% "Others." Whether this is the vote for the Independents, or for Other political parties that weren't named in Ekos' survey, is hard to tell - though there would need to be a very large swing to the four "major" Independent candidates currently running - Hadland, Huntington, Simpson, and van Dongen - to get to 5.5% overall.

There's no real way for me to separate it out, of course, so I stuck with the 1% support for the major Independents based on the 2009 results province-wide, and let the remaining 4.5% go to the "Others" category in the projection. What ended up happening is that the "Others" won Vernon-Monashee, where an Independent candidate by the name of, erm, Gordon Campbell, won 5.8% of the vote. Apparently this is enough of a base to build off of. Not sure if he's running this time around, of course, and I may have to take his numbers out of the equation - usually this isn't a problem, unless you've got some sort of freaky swing to the "Others" like Ekos is showing here.

Anyways, that's all. No regionals, sadly, which is odd because Ekos is generally good with those. Ah well. I'll be covering another poll soon that deals with the Senate, which I find extremely interesting. Otherwise, keep an eye out for me on national TV! I'll be at the Mississauga debate with the federal Liberal leadership candidates, in the crowd somewhere, and if the cameras at any point pan over us, I'll be sure to wave my arms like a maniac - just for you guys.

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