Angus Reid has a new poll out for the provincial scene in British Columbia, which doesn't show much too movement but is interesting nonetheless.
Angus Reid (BC Provincial - February 21-22, 2013)
New Democratic: 47% (+1%) - 62 seats (-1 seat)
BC Liberal Party: 31% (=) - 21 seats (+2 seats)
Green Party: 10% (=) - 0 seats (-1 seat)
BC Conservative: 9% (-1%) - 0 seats (=)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)
Like I said, not too much change from AR's January poll, though its one of only three polls that I know of since May 2011 to feature the Conservatives below the Green Party province-wide. With the general downward spiral of John Cummin's Conservatives, and the closeness of an upcoming election, could we see the Greens beat out a party that at one point threatened to overtake the Liberals for Official Opposition?
Regionals show the Liberals up in Metro Vancouver (up from 29% to 35%), while down in the Interior (from 39% to 29% now). The NDP are up in the Interior (from 39% to 45%), and stable everywhere else.
One conclusion you may draw from this poll is that, while the Clark Liberals are definitely up from the low-20s and we can say for sure this is a steady trend, they may have plateaued. The NDP have plateaued for while at roughly 45-50%, now the Liberals are getting stuck at 30-35%. Better, but not enough. It's going to come down to the campaign, it seems.
Just to cover this now, you may or may not have noticed a new link at the top of the blog, written as "BC Projection." This is exactly how it sounds - it represents my average rolling projection for BC, which I update constantly with every new poll that comes out. It has some trend charts, and also riding-level projections.
As we head into the expected May election, I'm looking forward to doing yet another provincial election projection. Personally, I have no dog in the race out there - I'm not supportive of any party. Though as this is a Liberal blog, and there is a BC Liberal Party, especially one that is currently struggling to stay in power - thus, I will talk from a certain perspective, that being I have an interest in what happens to the BC Liberals. I'm not supporting them, but I do want to see where the future lies for that party.
So don't be commenting on my blog about how terrible Christy Clark is - I know its going to be a contentious election, I know people have opinions, but if its just to say how bad Clark is and how biased I am to focus on the Liberals, I don't care. What I do care about is what the data shows, and where the BC Liberals will be when all is said and done.