Monday, February 25, 2013

Angus Reid BC Poll: 47% NDP, 31% BC Lib

Angus Reid has a new poll out for the provincial scene in British Columbia, which doesn't show much too movement but is interesting nonetheless.

Angus Reid (BC Provincial - February 21-22, 2013)
New Democratic: 47% (+1%) - 62 seats (-1 seat)
BC Liberal Party: 31% (=) - 21 seats (+2 seats)
Green Party: 10% (=) - 0 seats (-1 seat)
BC Conservative: 9% (-1%) - 0 seats (=)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

Like I said, not too much change from AR's January poll, though its one of only three polls that I know of since May 2011 to feature the Conservatives below the Green Party province-wide. With the general downward spiral of John Cummin's Conservatives, and the closeness of an upcoming election, could we see the Greens beat out a party that at one point threatened to overtake the Liberals for Official Opposition?

Regionals show the Liberals up in Metro Vancouver (up from 29% to 35%), while down in the Interior (from 39% to 29% now). The NDP are up in the Interior (from 39% to 45%), and stable everywhere else.

One conclusion you may draw from this poll is that, while the Clark Liberals are definitely up from the low-20s and we can say for sure this is a steady trend, they may have plateaued. The NDP have plateaued for while at roughly 45-50%, now the Liberals are getting stuck at 30-35%. Better, but not enough. It's going to come down to the campaign, it seems.

BC Projection

Just to cover this now, you may or may not have noticed a new link at the top of the blog, written as "BC Projection." This is exactly how it sounds - it represents my average rolling projection for BC, which I update constantly with every new poll that comes out. It has some trend charts, and also riding-level projections.

As we head into the expected May election, I'm looking forward to doing yet another provincial election projection. Personally, I have no dog in the race out there - I'm not supportive of any party. Though as this is a Liberal blog, and there is a BC Liberal Party, especially one that is currently struggling to stay in power - thus, I will talk from a certain perspective, that being I have an interest in what happens to the BC Liberals. I'm not supporting them, but I do want to see where the future lies for that party.

So don't be commenting on my blog about how terrible Christy Clark is - I know its going to be a contentious election, I know people have opinions, but if its just to say how bad Clark is and how biased I am to focus on the Liberals, I don't care. What I do care about is what the data shows, and where the BC Liberals will be when all is said and done.

2 comments:

  1. Kyle H. FYI the BC Liberal Party is NOT liberal. It is about as liberal as Tim Hudak is A "Progressive" conservative. As a person from BC I feel obligated to educate non British Columbians about our political culture. First of All there are 2 parties a Right of Centre party and a Left of Centre party. anyway thats my rant

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    1. I did indeed know this already, thanks. I probably know a lot more about BC's political history and climate than most British Columbians do. It's kind of my thing.

      Anyways, I know it isn't a "liberal" party - it's a "free-market" party, or at least the latest incarnation thereof. Nevertheless, if I was a BCer, I would likely support the BC Liberals, but this is before you take any of the multitude of scandals and other issues into account. My ideals are generally in line with the BC Liberals, but obviously they have quite a lot of issues that are pretty off-putting.

      Besides, the BC Liberals are a mix of liberal and conservatives, kind of like the Saskatchewan Party, or like the Manitoba NDP (where its a mix of Liberals and NDPers), or like the Quebec Liberals, etc. There is no true "liberal" option simply because of the politics of BC - but instead you have this hybrid party. BC is like New Zealand or Australia - the original "liberal" party disappeared after the anti-socialist parties decided to merge in order to present a united front versus Labour. But, even so, both the Liberals in Australia and the Nationals in New Zealand retain liberal, or "moderate," members, despite their position as the "right-wing" party in their respective country's spectrum.

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