Thursday, February 7, 2013

Abacus Poll: 35% Con, 31% NDP, 21% Lib

Abacus Data has come out today with an afternoon release of their federal polling data, showing little movement between the national parties - for Abacus, anyways.

Abacus Data (Federal - February 5-6, 2013)
Conservative: 35% (+1%) - 156 seats (+12 seats)
New Democratic: 31% (-1%) - 110 seats (-16 seats)
Liberal Party: 21% (-1%) - 59 seats (-3 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 26% (+1%) - 12 seats (+7 seats)
Green Party: 6% (=) - 1 seat (=)

Little change from their December 2012 release, but an increased gap between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals nonetheless. Its enough for a strongish minority government in a proposed 338-seat House of Commons.*

The big battles in this poll are in Quebec and British Columbia. In the former, the NDP are down at 34% (from 39% in December), while the Bloc inch up a tad and the Liberals jump up to 19%. This still leads to an NDP route of 46 seats to the Liberal's 14 and the Bloc's 12, but there has been a consistent drop for the NDP in their base province for ages now. I don't know what they're doing (or not doing), but if this continues on to 2015, it will be a severe handicap in the NDP's goal of attaining government.

In BC, the NDP lead with 40% to the Conservative's 38%, 21 seats to the Conservative's 18. I like this notion of making BC a battleground province, because it hasn't been since 1988! BC, thanks to its multitude of Conservative-leaning suburban and Interior ridings, has voted consistently Reform, Alliance, and CPC since Ed Broadbent was leader of the NDP. There are only a handful of competitive ridings in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island. With an NDP surge on the Left Coast, some of the more low-hanging fruits in the Interior - Cariboo, Kootenays, etc. - become competitive and interesting. With the redistribution that I talked about earlier, we should see some interesting races.

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead with 38% to the NDP's 30% and the Liberal's 26%. This allows for an easy Conservative romp in the suburbs of the GTA and its rural strongholds. Either the NDP or Liberals need to break out of the 25-35% range and actually compete with the Conservatives on easily winnable turf.

 There's some extra stuff about approval/disapproval, but nothing too surprising, so I won't cover it. Now, I need to go ensure my front door won't be permanently shut due to snowfall.

* - Just a question to readers, and feel free to say in the comments: should I revert back to the current seats (308) rather than continuing to use the 338-seat House numbers? I only ask, given that the redistribution I'm using is not up-to-date. Let me know!

1 comment:

  1. I would prefer going with the 338 model. Other websites are contradictory, and everyone is going to go to 338 anyway, so may as well get used to it now.

    ReplyDelete