Monday, February 11, 2013

Abacus Ontario Poll: 33% PC, 31% NDP, 30% OLP

Abacus Data released a new provincial poll for Ontario, following up Innovative's earlier release as the second post-Wynne win poll. Much like Innovative, we see a Liberal jump - though because Abacus actually had a previous poll out not too long ago, we see that all the numbers are within the margin of error.

Abacus Data (Ontario Provincial - February 5-6, 2013)
Prog. Conservative: 33% (-2%) - 45 seats (-3 seats)
New Democratic: 31% (=) - 33 seats (-1 seat)
Ontario Liberal: 30% (+2%) - 29 seats (+4 seats)
Green Party: 5% (=)

Compared to their December 2012 release, everyone's been relatively stable, except for a couple of points swapped between the leading Progressive Conservatives and actually governing Ontario Liberals. This is a true three-way race, and speaks a lot to Ontario's conflicted political climate; sure, people are pissed at the Ontario Liberals, but they're not willing to give Hudak the benefit of the doubt, nor are they necessarily willing to jump entirely on board with Andrea Horwath's Dippers.

Abacus has given us a lot of regionals this time, so we don't have that muddied "GTA" regional to deal with. This time, we see a large Liberal lead within the 416 (Toronto), 45% to the NDP's 30%, while coming up second in the 905 region with 30%, behind the PCs at 38% and ahead of the NDP at 27%. This flies somewhat in the face of other pollsters which show strong NDP numbers in the 905, though if you combine the Hamilton/Niagara regional with the 905 numbers, we get 35% PC to 31% NDP and 28% Liberal. Overall though, that huge Liberal lead in Toronto gives the Liberals the upper hand in the province's most populous region.

Outside of the GTA, the PCs lead in Eastern Ontario (41%) and Southwestern Ontario (37%), with the Liberals coming in second in the former, and the NDP in the latter. Sadly, our two expected by-elections are being held in SW Ontario, and we Liberals are sitting at 23% in the region - enough to save London West (barely), but not enough to save Windsor-Tecumseh.

In the North, the NDP dominate with 42% to the PC's 29%.

Here's a map of the expected winners in each riding across Ontario, based on this poll. You'll notice a lot of red in the GTA.


  1. Do you know when Ontario redistricts?

    1. Going under the assumption that Wynne won't change the current (nearly) 1:1 formula between federal and provincial districts, I'm going to assume it'll be after the federal redistribution is completed for Ontario, and when we have an actual stable government, so after the next election - I can't see them doing it before we go to the polls next in Ontario.