Thursday, January 17, 2013

Ontario Delegate Maps and Charts and Fun!

Earl Washburn over at Canadian Election Atlas has created a great map detailing the winners of each riding in terms of delegates for the OLP Leadership race, along with some analysis - I suggest you give it a good read over, because its highly interesting.

I myself have created two  thematic maps of the support for Wynne and Pupatello in each riding, given that they're our frontrunners and the most interesting.

As you should be able to see (click and enlarge if you can't), and contrary to the notions of certain others, Wynne has some pretty substantial support outside of Toronto, or even the GTA as a whole; in fact, 62% of Wynne's riding delegate support comes from outside of the GTA. That is broadly similar to the amount delegates from outside of the GTA there actually are, which is just below 60%.

Pupatello, however, fits more to the type she's been fitted into, with 75% of her riding delegate support coming from outside of the GTA. Only 12% of her support comes from Toronto proper, compared to 23% for Wynne. Though Charles Sousa has the greatest, erm, "downtown Toronto" support, at 39% - 74% of his total riding delegates come from the entire GTA.

The key thing here is that Wynne's support is actually remarkably uniform throughout the province, in terms of a Toronto/non-Toronto divide anyways. Pupatello has more disproportionate numbers, same with Sousa; Hoskins, Kennedy, and Takhar are also generally uniform, though not as "spot on" as Wynne is.

That proves a couple of things, obviously - one, this stupid media narrative that there is some sort of schism has become a self-fulfilled prophecy, and two, Wynne played less to the "downtown Toronto" type than other candidates, and Pupatello's support failed to transcend the stupid narrative.

Very interesting, if I do say so myself.

Here's a chart illustrating what I was saying above:

You can double check all my data here.


  1. Huge fan of your graphical table!

  2. Shocking that Sousa placed second in Toronto and in the 905, but placed dead last outside the GTA. Compare this to Pupatello who did very well outside the GTA but poorly - comparatively - within the GTA.

    1. I'm not as surprised - Sousa's campaign focused pretty close to home, as far as I'm aware, and who really outside of his stomping grounds has heard of him? Pupatello is the one that should be concerned, given that she did have a pretty good total in the GTA, meaning she probably had a good organization here, but it failed to gain that much traction. The whole narrative against her worked, apparently.