Sunday, January 13, 2013

OLP Leadership Update

An update on an earlier post I made detailing the delegate candidate counts. More firm numbers have now been confirmed. There will be 1712 riding delegates, 16 from each riding. There will be 419 ex-officio delegates. 144 youths will be elected from 18 campus clubs, plus 8 representatives of the women clubs. This is a grand total of 2283 delegates. My personal guess is that round 2% of the riding delegates will not show. They'll either lose interest in their candidate, have personal emergencies, or, with a group this big, one or two of them may pass away. This would make for 1678 riding delegates who will show. I expect a similar number (2%) of problems with youth delegates, meaning 141 would show. I expect all 8 women's clubs representatives to show. Of the 419 ex-officio delegates, however, I see a much higher rate of non-participation. Over long periods of time, former MPPs can lose interest in the party itself. Others may be of an age that they are in effect bed ridden. Still others may now be important cogs in the corporate economy and simply chose not to come. I expect between 5% and 10% will be no shows, and I estimate the number who will turn out to be around 380. This would give us 2207 votes on the first ballot.

Wynne has 1646 candidates
Pupatello has 1409
From the lack of riding numbers attached in the article, it would seem these two are running candidates in all 107 ridings.
Kennedy has 898 in  97 ridings
Sousa has 814 in 92
Hoskins has 773 in 97
Takhar has 503 in 54

About 1100 delegates will be needed to win on the first ballot, and it is unlikely that any single candidate will achieve this by the end of the day.

Once we have reliable elected delegate counts, we will, of course, let you know!

No comments:

Post a Comment