Saturday, January 26, 2013

OLP Leadership - 1st ballot

Teddy here. With Kyle likely busy doing delegate things, I thought I should fill in. A fair warning to readers: I had expected the results would come out tomorrow, so am a bit surprised it is today. I guess I should have paid more attention!

The first ballot results are as follows:

599 - Pupatello
597 - Wynne
281 - Kennedy
222 - Sousa
235 - Takhar
150 - Hoskins

After the first ballot, Hoskins was eliminated and was quick to endorse Wynne.

Takhar, some 30 minutes later or so, dropped to endorse Pupatello. His name will remain on the ballot.

So what kind of second ballot are we looking at? Presuming 70% of delegates follow their candidate, and, presuming that 20% of Takhar's delegates (the following kind) didn't get the message in time, the second ballot could look like this:

751 - Pupatello
736 - Wynne
294 - Kennedy
235 - Sousa
47 - Takhar

This presumes no momentum and an equal split of the 30% non-follow delegates.
I've done this to show that Kennedy and Sousa have no chance. If one of them had gotten an endorsement from Takhar or Hoskins, maybe, but at this point, even if they endorse one another (like Kennedy did with Dion federally) there is just not enough stray support to overcome the two front runners.

Thus the entire focus is on Pupatello and Wynne, and, Ontario will thus have it's first female Premier, and better for Canada, all 4 of it's largest provinces will be lead by women.

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