Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Mustel BC Poll: 43% NDP, 33% BC Liberal

Mustel has a new provincial poll out, showing a closer - but not quite close enough - race between the leading NDP under Adrian Dix, and the incumbent BC Liberals under Premier Clark.

Mustel Group (BC Provincial - January 11-21, 2013)
New Democratic: 43% (-2%) - 55 seats (=)
BC Liberal Party: 33% (+1%) - 27 seats (+2 seats)
BC Conservative: 11% (-7%) - 1 seat (-2 seats)
Green Party: 11% (+7%)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

Not too much difference since Mustel's last... well, it wasn't so much a "poll" as it was an "update," since though it appears in Mustel's tracking, there's no actual data out about it. Either way, I covered it back in September. The biggest change has been the collapse of the BC Conservative vote, and an increase in the Green's vote.

There are very basic regionals, with the NDP leading in Metro Vancouver, 45% to 35%, and leading 42% to 30% in the rest of BC. That would net the NDP 28 seats in the Lower Mainland to the Liberal's 18, 27 in the rest of BC to 9 for the Liberals. The lone Conservative holdout is Boundary-Similkameen, though by a very bare amount.

That confirms both the Angus Reid poll done earlier this month, and one done by Ipsos Reid in November 2012, that the Liberals are increasing - but it isn't quite enough. The Liberals may be solidifying their presence as the main "free market" opposition to the NDP, but it doesn't look like they'll catch up - at least, not so far. Who knows, election day is only a few months away...


  1. Huntington and Hadland

    Huntington, Vicki is quite well known here in BC, Hadland...never heard of him... unless of course your last name is Hadland.

    1. Hadland is out in Northern BC, he ran in 2009 against Pat Primm, came second. He's running against this year, had a good shot at winning.