Thursday, January 31, 2013

Innovative Ontario Poll: 31% Lib, 30% PC, 27% NDP

Innovative Research, which does do the occasional poll here and there, is the first pollster to come out with a post-Wynne, um, win poll, showing a tight three-way race with the Liberals actually leading it for once.

Innovative Research (Ontario Provincial - January 27-29, 2013)
Ontario Liberal: 31% (+3%) - 46 seats
Prog. Conservative: 30% (-1%) - 33 seats
New Democratic: 27% (-4%) - 27 seats
Green Party: 9% (=) - 1 seat

The changes are from the last Innovative Poll out, which I didn't cover here but Eric Grenier at did. There are no regionals in this poll, however, so this is simply a basic swing of the entire province - take that as you will.

Innovative has looked into some other interesting things though. One question asked was how certain respondents were to vote for their particular party; the PCs led with 92% certainty (59% very certain, 33% somewhat certain); then the Liberals at 86% (50% very, 36% somewhat), then NDP at 85% (51% very, 34% somewhat), then Green at 74% (46% very, 28% somewhat).

Then Innovative asked for respondent's second choices. For Liberals, 39% say the NDP is their second choice, and 28% say its the PCs; for the PCs, its 32% Liberals then 19% NDP, with 23% not even deciding to vote being the second place second choice for PC supporters. I always suspect that its fairly possible a lot of the turnout drop in October 2011 was actually PC voters, who didn't like Hudak and weren't too threatened by McGuinty; maybe we're seeing evidence of that here as well.

In terms of "party identification," the Liberals lead with 28%, PCs at 23%, Independent at 21%, and Dippers at 16%.

In terms of favourable/unfavourable impressions, Kathleen Wynne is viewed favourably by 36% of respondents, and unfavourably by 12%; 30% don't "recognize" her. Hudak's favourable/unfavourable is 34/29, with 17% not recognizing him; and Horwath's is 37/14, with 31% not recognizing her.

Wynne's favourables aren't too much different from McGuinty's, but her unfavourables are definitely lower; Innovative had McGuinty's unfavourability rating at 55%! Ouch.

In further proof that Wynne may end up being a big positive as well, 24% consider her the "best option for Premier," noting that this same particularly at the expense of Andrea Horwath, who comes in at 13%, down majorly from 21% in an unreleased December 2012 poll.

There's lots of other tidbits in the poll that are interesting, including questions on whether or not Liberal policies are actually "working." Give it a read, definitely worth it.

The consequences of this poll showing what it does - basically, that Wynne as Liberal Leader is pretty much a net-positive right now for us - are too soon to tell. In my opinion, people are likely latching on to Wynne as the not-McGuinty, and it'll take some time before legitimate approval (or disapproval) of her to register. For now, we should count our blessings; as much as I like McGuinty and think he left Ontario with a great legacy, as muddled as it might be, he was definitely something of a drag on the party. We'll see what happens in the coming months.


  1. Any idea why the original star story had it OLP 24%, PCPo 23%,and NDP 20%?

    1. They reported it with the undecideds, I use the decideds numbers only.

  2. For years I hated McGunity and hoped he would lose.

    My first reaction on seeing this poll was "hey, we are back on top"
    My second was "we?"

    If more Ontarians think like I do, we can actually win the next election.

    1. Well, a lot of it is going to depend on how Wynne comes off to the population. If she can repair the brand from the damage that was done, then maybe people will start to think like you, Teddy.