Sunday, January 20, 2013

Forum and Angus Reid Federal Polls

Two new polls for the federal scene are out today, and I thought I'd do a quick overview of them, just a basic projection and a couple of comments.

First off, everyone's favourite Forum:

Forum Research (Federal - January 16-17, 2013)
Conservative: 36% (+5%) - 162 seats (+31 seats)
Liberal Party: 25% (-2%) - 77 seats (-20 seats)
New Democratic: 28% (=) - 71 seats (-15 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 25% (+1%) - 27 seats (+4 seats)
Green Party: 4% (-2%) - 1 seat

The Conservatives made a big jump since the last Forum poll in late December, going from just above 30% to a healthy (for FPTP) 36%. The Liberals and Greens dropped a couple of points, while the NDP and Bloc essentially stayed the same.

Yet, despite the drop, the Liberals remain in second place in this projection. Why? Because of Quebec, where the NDP sit at a low 26%, same as last time; the Liberals sit at 29%, also like in the last poll. For the NDP to be this low in the province that gives them most of their seats and base is definitely not good, and I really don't know why either. One could maybe attribute to Trudeaumania, or one could say that Mulcair hasn't made much of an impression and now Quebeckers are bored of the NDP. Hard to say this far out, of course.

In Ontario, the Conservatives jumped from the low thirties to 40%, while the Libs and NDP dropped back a bit and now sit at 27% a piece. Otherwise the NDP are doing well in BC (36%) and the Prairies (33%), and the Liberals dominate in the Atlantic region (46%).

In Trudeau polling, we see that the wunderkind has actually dropped!

Forum Research (Federal - Trudeau as LPC Leader)
Conservative: 33% (+3%) - 137 seats (+24 seats)
Liberal Party: 35% (-4%) - 133 seats (-25 seats)
New Democratic: 21% (-1%) - 39 seats (-16 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 25% (+5%) - 28 seats (+17 seats)
Green Party: 3% (-1%) - 1 seat

The big drop for Trudeau in terms of seats is because of a Conservative increase in Ontario, the Prairies, and BC - but in terms of the actual percentage, its because his polling in Quebec went from 41% to 34% - benefitting, on the face of it, the Cons and Bloc. Dunno why, this is hypothetical polling after all, and it can be volatile - though, as I keep remarking, it is relatively stable, even from pollster to pollster. Maybe there's something to the drop other than its fantastic nature.

They apparently decided Marc Garneau wasn't cool enough to do polling for this time, sadly.

On to Angus Reid:

Angus Reid (Federal - January 16-17, 2013)
Conservative: 35% (=) - 161 seats (-20 seats)
New Democratic: 29% (-4%) - 98 seats (-16 seats)
Liberal Party: 22% (+3%) - 66 seats (+28 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 25% (+2%) - 12 seats (+9 seats)
Green Party: 6% (=) - 1 seat (-1 seat)

AR showed a bit of a different reality, with a drop for the NDP and a rise for the Liberals - though they had the latter at a paltry 19% in the last poll, so a lot of good it did!

The NDP drop comes mostly from Ontario (from 35% to 29%) and Quebec (from 40% to 32%). Never a good thing to have. The Liberals went up a bit in Ontario and only a point in Quebec,  and jumped up in BC and the Prairies a bit more. The Conservatives were pretty much stable everywhere, except a moderate increase in BC and Quebec.

AR did hypothetical polling as well, showing a Trudeau-led LPC would win 34% to 33% for the Cons (a drop very similar to Forum's), while Garneau would come in at 25%, Hall Findlay at 19%, and Martin Cauchon at 17%. 55% of Canadians also think Trudeau will win, and polling about how well respondents know about a candidate's backgrounds/ideals shows that Trudeau and Garneau are the only noteworthy people in the race - even Cauchon ended up with 62% not knowing who or what he was.

AR also polled about mergers, co-operations, and so on. I assume this was among all respondents, and there's no regional breakdown nor party breakdown - so everyone opposing co-operation may just be Conservative or something, though these numbers seem to poll above the Con numbers. Either way, there seems to be a significant amount of support for the status-quo and/or a coalition of some sort, things that make sense. Co-operation and merger are less preferable options.

Finally, two amusing points: apparently in a merged party, more people thing the next winner of the Liberal leadership race should be the leader compared to Mulcair. Also, only 23% of people could name the leader of the Bloc (it's Daniel Paille) - that's amazingly high I think!

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