Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Delegate candidate counts - Ontario Liberal Leadership

Teddy here to let you know about an article in the Toronto Star, which details the preliminary delegate candidate totals for each of the candidates in the leadership election.

It should be noted that each camp is contesting the count as reported, and these are thus not the final numbers.

More importantly, it should be noted, this is the number of candidates for delegate slots, and not the number of delegates elected.

1533 in 107 ridings - Kathleen Wynne
1281 in 106 ridings - Sandra Pupatello
846 in 97 ridings - Gerard Kennedy
778 in 92 ridings - Charles Sousa
714 in 97 ridings - Eric Hoskins
461 in 82 ridings - Glen Murray
456 in 54 ridings - Harinder Takhar

Wynne seems to have the strongest "ground game" and is the only candidate who is running in all 107 ridings. Pupatello seems to be close behind with Kennedy much further behind than he would like to be. Kennedy's total of 97 ridings is matched by Hoskins, and the two are followed by Sousa at 92 ridings.

Considering that it would be unlikely for the Ontario Liberals to win 92 ridings, I personally say the candidates with this many ridings are the 'true' and 'full-time' candidates.

Murray is behind with 82 ridings, and is at nipping at the heels of full-time status, while Takhar is in some trouble with only 54 ridings. While I am not positive exactly where Takhar's support is coming from, my wild guess would be the GTA, and while he may not be able to win the race, an endorsement by him on latter ballots could be crucial to any final victory.

Each riding will elect 16 delegates to the convention, but it's always a question of how many will actually show. Most usually do, but far flung ridings where support is minimal will be the most likely to have a few no-shows. This gives a total of 1712 delegates. There are an additional 800 or so auto-delegates. This includes but is not limited to current and former MPPs and MPs, and other party officials. This gives a total of about 2500 delegates, which means around 1250 will be needed to win. Any one of the top 5 candidates could thus win on the first ballot with support from the auto-delegates.

2 comments:

  1. Naw, I refused to take out a membership in protest of the whole delegated system in the first place.

    ReplyDelete