Thursday, January 31, 2013

British Columbia Redistribution Report, Pt. 1 - Vancouver, Surrey, Victoria

Finally I've gotten around to British Columbia, the third of the three recent provinces to have their federal redistribution commission release their revised boundaries. I should mention that these are not final boundaries, but they're likely going to be at the very least the basis for the end result - most of the consultation has been done and a lot of concerns about which part goes where has been brought up. I'll be covering the final reports as well when they come out, though we're still waiting for Ontario and Quebec's Commission's Reports, so it may be awhile - they're due to late February, but they could ask for another extension.

Anyways, on to BC. For this post, I'm focusing only on the cities of Vancouver, Surrey, and Victoria. Next post, due either tomorrow or Saturday, will be on the eastern suburbs of Vancouver (Burnaby to Port Coquitlam, basically), and then the rest of BC.

Lets start off with Vancouver.
Vancouver's boundaries haven't changed all that much, even from the 2003 order boundaries, except for the wedging in of a new riding, Vancouver-Granville. This riding will basically be a three-way race between the major parties, advantage going to the Conservatives, though.  

Vancouver Centre, meanwhile, has some of its southern portion chopped off and going to Granville; in the original proposal, this was along W 6th Ave, but in the report boundary  has it instead curving up W 4th Ave and W 2nd Ave when they intersect with 6th Ave. This takes out a few polls, three of them Liberal-leaning, two Conservative, and an NDP riding. It won't change who leads in the riding though, which is the Liberals.

Vancouver Quadra, East, Kingsway, and South all retain their partisan leanings, with the redistribution changing their boundaries, but often to the benefit of the incumbents. The one exception is Vancouver South, which loses some Conservative polls in the western portion of its current riding boundaries, thus giving the Liberal polls inside of it more weight. Still Conservative-leaning, though.

On to Surrey.

Surrey has seen quite a bit of change since the original proposed boundaries came out. Under the current 2003 order boundaries, there are four ridings that sort of cover Surrey - Newton-North Delta (combines the Newton neighborhood of Surrey the urban part of Delta), Surrey Centre, Fleetwood-Port Kells, and South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale (what it name says). The original redistribution proposal would have covered the city in five ridings, splitting up the northern portion into three ridings - West Surrey-Whalley, Surrey Centre (which moved more south than its current location), and North Surrey-Guilford. The southern portion would have been covered by South Surrey-White Rock, and Cloverdale would have been combined with part of the City of Langley to form Langley-Cloverdale.

The report keeps South Surrey-White Rock and Cloverdale-Langley roughly similar in scope, except for the southeastern rural polls which shifted back to SS-WR, and some more western suburban polls becoming apart of Cloverdale-Langley. Most of the changes are in the northern urban areas, though really you can see a lot of similarities between these ridings and the 2003 order ones.

Surrey Centre moves back up north and looks very similar to the current riding, minus a few more southern polls. The same goes for Fleetwood-Port Kells, including in losing some more southern polls. Essentially though, there isn't a lot of difference.

Thus, Surrey-Newton becomes the most interesting riding in the city. This new riding will take in a lot of Liberal polls that were apart of Newton-North Delta, meaning that if we have another popular local candidate, like Sukh Dhaliwal, we could end up winning this riding. I haven't done a transposition, but it could be a barely-Liberal riding. It'll definitely make things interesting. Under the original proposal, most of these polls were apart of West Surrey-Whalley - making it essentially a safer NDP riding, due to the combination with those northern NDP polls in Surrey Centre. This one, however, should be competitive.

Finally, Victoria.

You may notice I had to use red for the report boundaries - this is because of the presence of all those Green polls, and the lack of one - just one - Liberal poll. Not a friendly area for us by any stretch of the imagination.

Anyways, not too much to say here. Both Victoria and Saanich-Gulf Islands remain the same as they currently are, except about 20 polls in the very southwest corner of SGI that are apart of a new riding, Saanich-Juan de Fuca, or under the original proposal, Esquimalt-Colwood. This latter riding has had its boundaries stretch out west to the Jordan River, incorporating the town of Sooke along the way. This riding is the successor to Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, which was a closely fought NDP-Con fight; this should, however, make the riding a lot more NDP friendly. Those Green Party polls in the east should help as well, as I doubt they're going to stay Green without Lizzy May's name on the ballot.

That about covers it. As I said, I'll cover the rest of BC later.


  1. There's one Liberal poll in Victoria. I'm told it surrounds the house of our Candidate, who was the Mayor of Oak Bay

    1. Oh yeah, I see it now, nestled there. Barely won. Not surprising it surrounded Causton's house!