Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Atlantic Canada CRA Poll - 36% Lib, 30% Con, 30% NDP

Everyone's favourite Atlantic Canada pollster (well, the only Atlantic Canada pollster of any note, anyways), Corporate Research Associates, came out with a new poll for the federal scene, showing the Liberals with good growth since November 2011, the last time they took this poll.

The poll is interesting to say the least, showing Liberal leads in PEI and Nova Scotia, and placing second in Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick. The Nova Scotia results are a good sign for the Liberals; a lot of our best growth will come from ridings in that province, rather than New Brunswick where the Cons have large surpluses to rely on.

Using province-specific projections, and with the redistributed seats, I got the following:

NL: 4 Liberal, 2 New Democrat, 1 Conservative
NS: 6 Liberal, 3 New Democrat, 2 Conservative
PEI: 4 Liberal
NB: 6 Conservative, 3 Liberal, 1 New Democrat

In total, that is 17 Liberals, 9 Conservatives, and 6 NDP. Roughly similar to the 2008 results for the region, except with a boosted NDP presence.

Now the question, of course, is why? Nova Scotia may be easy to explain, with the unpopularity of the Dexter government right now, with the Liberals probably picking up a lot of support in the Halifax area. Newfoundland's federal Conservatives are an unpopular bunch right now, while the NDP are rather popular, even provincially seeing a good rise in support. PEI is a little wonky, maybe due to small sample size, though I could believe those numbers too. New Brunswick settled back into the 2008 numbers, almost exactly, and that Conservative province remains fairly Conservative.

It'll be interesting to see if these numbers hold when the next Liberal leader is chosen. Justin's hypothetical numbers are usually in the high 40's to low 50's for the entire Atlantic region, which would equal a near sweep for sure, a la 1993. If its another person, however, at least these numbers seem pretty good for a the party, chugging along as it is.

3 comments:

  1. These looks like provincial numbers. I have no doubt the numbers will change come a federal election, but it does bring up the important point that how popular or unpopular a provincial party is in the Atlantic may have an impact on it's federal standing - this is important for the Liberals in Nova Scotia (where we could gain) and Newfoundland (where we could lose)

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  2. Just out of curiosity do you know if the one Conservative seat from Newfoundland and Labrador based on your projection would be Labrador or Avalon?

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    1. It was Avalon, a very close race between Liberals and Conservatives. This is under the new boundaries, mind you, which took out a good portion of Liberal territory in that northern peninsula that Carbonear is on (I forget the name of it). Thus, the Conservatives retain control of the riding.

      In the 308-seat house, though, the Liberals would take 5 seats to the NDP's 2, with the inclusion of Avalon.

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