Friday, January 4, 2013

Angus Reid Poll: 35% Con, 33% NDP, 19% Liberal

Our first poll of the new year is out! Angus Reid, an online pollster, has given us a new poll done just recently, with topline numbers and Liberal leadership polling, both of which I'll cover. But first, Canada:

Angus Reid (Federal - January 2nd-3rd, 2013)
Conservative: 35% (+1) - 181 seats
New Democratic: 33% (-2%) - 114 seats
Liberal Party: 19% (=) - 38 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 23% (=) - 3 seats
Green Party: 6% (+1%) - 2 seats

The last AR poll for federal voting intentions was done in June, when they also did Liberal leadership polling, and I questioned it thoroughly (I still do). Since then it seems the NDP dropped, but overall the polling has been pretty stable. Angus also seems in the camp whereby the Liberals are indeed not as popular as Forum would have us believe, similar to Abacus.

Anyways, despite the closeness of the race, under the originally proposed 338-seat House (because I've yet to see new transpositions come out), the Conservatives come out with a moderate majority. This is mostly due to Ontario, where despite another close race (36% to 35% NDP), the Conservatives take 71 seats, to the Dipper's 36 and the Liberal's 14. This goes to show that, at least on a swing basis, the NDP needs the Liberals to be a tad stronger than they are in this poll, otherwise all those suburban Con-Lib fights continue to go to Harper's party. There are no other interesting races, not even Quebec.

In terms of approval/disapproval, Harper's is 37/54, Mulcair's is 44/34, Rae's is 32/43, and May's is 35/33.

Now on to the interesting part!

Angus Reid asked a couple of good leadership questions, one straight voting intentions, and one as "would this leader be a good/bad choice?"

The voting intentions are easy, though no regional breakdown is provided so I can't do a projection, but AR did it for Trudeau, Garneau, and Hall Findlay - our apparently frontrunners, or something.

Under Trudeau, the Liberals would shoot up to 42% support among decided voters, compared to 26% for the Cons and 19% for the NDP. That would be a fairly easy majority for the Liberals.

Under Garneau, the Liberals would be third, but competitive a 24%, compared to 32% for the Cons and 27% for the NDP. With Hall Findlay, Liberals wouldn't budge at 19%, compared to 33% for the Cons and 29% for the NDP. These numbers, however, are suspect, because the "other party" option shoots up significantly in all of them. Add in undecideds, and between 27% to 37% wouldn't vote or don't know who'd they vote for. Important to remember, especially for Hall Findlay and Garneau; there are more undecideds available for them to attract, so those decided voters numbers may not mean too much.

The other question is interesting, so here's the list in easy format, green is "good choice," red "bad choice," gray "not sure":

Justin Trudeau: 46% - 29% - 26%
Marc Garneau: 56% - 31% - 13%
Martha Hall Findlay: 74% - 14% - 12%
Joyce Murray: 84% - 10% - 6%
Deborah Coyne: 82% - 12% - 5%
Karen McCrimmon: 85% - 12% - 3%
David Merner: 86% - 11% - 2%
David Bertschi: 87% - 11% - 2%
George Takach: 87% - 11% - 2%
Jonathan Mousley: 88% - 11% - 2%

You can, uh, possibly see the problem here. Most of the candidates are hugely unknown to the population, thus no one has an opinion on them. This is true for everyone except Trudeau. Garneau is only slightly competitive in this way. The rest of the candidates all have "bad choice" as leading the "good choice" option, never a good sign, though as I mentioned its likely more down to their lack of a famous name than anything else. Still, if the people who are giving you any sort of recognition are mostly looking at you in a negative way, it isn't exactly boding well for your future. 

I would say its probably down to people simply thinking all of these superfluous candidates are a nuisance, rather than them hating your guts or something, so take heart.

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