Monday, January 21, 2013

Angus-Reid BC Poll: 46% NDP, 31% BC Lib

Angus-Reid have been busy bees this week, now throwing up a new British Columbia provincial poll which doesn't actually show too much different from their last poll, despite these sorts of headlines.

Angus Reid (BC Provincial - January 17-18, 2013)
New Democratic: 46% (-1%) - 63 seats (+5 seats)
BC Liberal Party: 31% (+2%) - 19 seats (-3 seats)
Green Party: 10% (+1%) - 1 seat (+1 seat)
BC Conservative: 10% (-2%) - 0 seats (-3 seats)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

Despite a slight increase in their vote, the Clark Liberals dropped a few seats from the last AR poll, mostly due to falling behind in Metro Vancouver (33% last time to 29% now), with a similar increase in the NDP's numbers. Metro Van is also where the Greens earn their one seat - sitting at 13% overall (almost double what they got in 2009), its enough to land West Vancouver-Sea to Sky in their column at about 38% to the Liberal's 32%.

The Liberals did however increase in the Interior, tying with the NDP at 39% each. The Conservatives remain far behind at 11% support, a very low number in the region everyone expected them to make their breakthrough in. In fact, the highest support for the Conservatives comes from Vancouver Island, apparently, at 17%.

The poor Conservative numbers may be due to the fact that John Cummins has a approval/disapproval of 13/51, a huge spread. Comparably, Clark's is 31/56, while Dix's is 46/34. Green Party leader Jane Sterk comes out at 23/29.

Overall this isn't really the great momentum that Christy Clark and the Liberals needed in order to stay in power. While it isn't terrible, especially given the recent news that you wouldn't call "momentum building," the fact remains that Dix's NDP remains in a comfortable position ahead of this May. It also isn't simply down to a breaking up of the "free market vote" - there seems to be genuine movement to the NDP that even a combination of the Liberals and Conservatives aren't going to beat.

At the very least though, the Liberals should take heart that it doesn't appear BCers are moving toward the Conservatives. Even if they do lose the next election, it could end up a lot more like 1972 than 1991; the "main" free market party looks to keep its position as the main opposition, rather than being blown away by a third-party challenger

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