Sunday, December 16, 2012

Quebec Léger Poll: 33% PQ, 27% PLQ, 27% CAQ

This will be my first spotlight on a Quebec provincial poll since the election, though definitely not the first poll out for the province since then - Léger has had two polls out before this current one, as has CROP, the province's other frequent pollster. If you're interested in seeing them, click here, or search for their posts on 308.com.

Anyways, the amazing thing to see is that voting intentions have been relative stable since Pauline Marois' péquistes won a slim minority government. Also since then, I've updated my projection model, as well as made a few tweaks that I hope will make it more accurate than what I had earlier this year. The problem I found was, of course, one of my own doing - I didn't clearly differentiate between "Montréal" and what the "Montréal RMR" is. One is the islands of Montréal and Laval, what I had before; the Montréal RMR actually covers a much wider swath of communities. I still didn't do too badly, but I could've done better

Anyways! Enough with the self-reflection, time for numbers:

Léger Marketing (Québec Provincial - December 10th-13th)
Parti Québécois: 33% - 64 députés
Parti libéral: 27% - 34 députés
Coalition avenir: 27% - 23 députés
Québec solidaire: 9% - 4 députés
Option nationale: 2%
Parti vert: 2%

 Because of the drop in Liberal support, the péquistes earn a bare majority government with 33% support - barely up from the 32% they earned in the election. There are just so many vote splits in the province that its astounding the see. The Liberals either need to boost their support significantly under a new leader (which will be either Philippe Couillard or Raymond Bachand, but I'll talk about that at a later date), or beat François Legault's Coalition down to a much smaller level of support, at least below 25%.

The opportunity is there, though. According to this poll, 62% of people polled are unsatisfied with the péquiste government led by Marois, compared to only 32% who are satisfied. Even 55% of francophones aren't impressed by this government.

Marois herself only breaks even on her personal likability numbers, with 44% professing a "bonne opinion" of  Marois, to 43% having a "mauvaise opinion." Comparatively, Françoise David is 48-17, Legault is 47-29, Couillard is 39-29, Raymond Bachand is at 33-29, and current PLQ interim leader Jean-Marc Fournier is at 27-21.

While Marois definitely seems more popular than her party, its clear she's also a horribly polarizing figure. Other members of her government, such as Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau do have positive numbers (23-14), but they're also barely known. Only Léo Bureau-Blouin comes close, with 39-31.

That leaves an opening for the Liberals under a new leader - but also for Legault's party. They have good reasons to force another election. Given that this is a minority government, and it will likely be a very volatile one once the Liberals choose their leader, we could see them topple the government sooner rather than later.

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