Sunday, December 9, 2012

Redistribution 2013 - NL, NS, and MB Commissioner's Reports Released

Three provinces, admittedly minor, have had their redistribution commissions complete their reports. Let's go over the changes from the original proposals quickly.

Newfoundland & Labrador has some minor changes to their proposed ridings, but there continues to be 7 ridings total, with all retaining their same partisan make-up, with the probably exception of Avalon flipping from barely Liberal to barely Conservative. There was general satisfaction across the board for the proposed ridings, with again, a few changes here and there.

Read the PDF here. Compare the ridings here.

Nova Scotia's proposed boundaries didn't change too much, with the exception of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Sackville-Porters Lake.

The proposed D-CH moved south from the current boundaries, going from including the communities of Burnside and residential areas north of the Hwy 111/Main St, and making up for the lost population by moving south to incorporate CFB Shearwater and the community of Eastern Passage. Those changes were reversed, and now the riding boundaries move back to the existing riding's shape, with the addition of CFB Shearwater and a bump in the north.

Sackville-Porters Lake is now Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, and remains mostly true to the originally proposed boundaries, but with the addition of the Eastern Passage area (which is apart of the existing Sackville-Eastern Shore riding), and moving its extreme northern boundaries up to the exisiting riding's.

Other small changes include changes to Halifax and Halifax West, which aren't really of consequence, except for Halifax West taking the entire community of Oakmount within its boundaries.

Partisan make-up stays the same, no major changes. Read the PDF here, compare the ridings here.

Manitoba had some interesting changes to one Winnipeg riding that helps out the Liberal incumbent there.

Winnipeg North, under the proposed boundaries, had shed some heavily Liberal-leaning polls in The Maples, handing them over to Kildonan-St. Paul, where they marginally increased the Liberal numbers in a Conservative-NDP riding. It changed the make-up of Winnipeg North, taking out nearly 1,000 Liberal voters, and with the addition of the communities of Garden City and Jefferson from Kildonan-St. Paul, added about 150 NDP voters and 1,200 Conservative voters. This dropped the Liberals to third in the riding.

However, the Commission has decided to reverse those changes, reverting back to the existing borders of Winnipeg North and Kildonan-St. Paul, with the exception of the community of Amber Trails becoming part of Winnipeg North. This does flip the riding to the NDP still, but its roughly a 200-vote difference between them and the Liberals. A much better situation for Kevin Lamoureux.

Other major changes are the names of two ridings: Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia, becomes Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingly (yes, one of those long names). Selkirk-Interlake becomes Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman.

It doesn't actually change the make-up of the province's new ridings, other than making Winnipeg North a lot easier for the Liberals to retain. Read the PDF here, view the comparison here.

There's no transpositions out for these new ridings yet, but when they are out, I will update my redistribution page with the correct numbers. With the exception of Winnipeg North, none of the Commissions changed much from their original proposals, so don't expect anything to wild.

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