Monday, December 10, 2012

Léger Marketing Poll: 35% Con, 30% NDP, 18% Lib, and Trudeau Polling

This new poll out for the federal scene from everyone's favourite Quebec pollster, Léger Marketing (well, they're my favourite because they break down their data the way I like), their first once since April of this year. It isn't too often we see them come out of their province, though Léger was active in Alberta's and Ontario's elections in the past year, marking what I think is a first - usually they stick to Quebec.

Léger Marketing (Federal - December 3rd-6th, 2012)
Conservative: 35% (+3%) - 164 seats
New Democratic: 30% (-3%) - 112 seats
Liberal Party: 18% (-1%) - 44 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 29% (=) - 15 seats
Green Party: 9% (+2%) - 3 seats

Léger's poll breaks with other recent polling from Forum, Ipsos, Abacus, and Nanos, which shows higher-than-average Liberal numbers. This may be due to the fact that the Green Party is apparently sitting at 9% nationally, including huge numbers in Atlantic Canada (16%) and Ontario (13%), and better numbers all around... except for British Columbia, where they sit at a relatively average 8%. Whether or not this affects Liberal numbers, we can never be sure - it just seems like a mighty odd correlation (especially in Ontario, where the Liberals sit at only 19%).

This poll is definitely... interesting, with those Green numbers. The two extra seats come from Atlantic Canada, where 16% support in the region apparently puts them barely first in New Brunswick Southwest and Cumberland-Colchester. In Ontario, they come close to winning Dufferin-Caledon. None of these ridings are too different from 2011 in the proposed redistribution.

This isn't a result that has been reproduced in any other recent poll, and do not say it is because of the Green numbers in the recent by-elections - once again, BC has seen no Green bump, and neither has Alberta. The high Green numbers are likely down to small sample sizes.

Léger has also come out with some what-if Trudeau polling, which I'll throw up below:

While it isn't as impressive as Forum's Trudeau polls, it confirms that, at least for Canadians who haven't really seen what a Trudeau Liberal Party is like yet, they're willing to give the benefit of the doubt to this new leader. And a lot of that support comes from the NDP, yes, but the Conservatives have also seemingly dropped as well, something usually consistent in all of these hypothetical polls.

Quebec is probably the most amusing aspect of this poll, with a three-way tie between the Libs, NDP, and Bloc. In Forum's polls, the NDP are usually around 19%, so maybe that is where the missing percentage disappears here. The three-way split allows for amusing riding-level numbers in our redistributed Quebec, such as the proposed riding of Vaudreuil, with 29% NDP, 27% Bloc, and 26% Lib. Looks like 2008's Gatineau.

As always, its best to wonder if these numbers could be retained if Trudeau does indeed become Leader, and he has to start putting out policy and leading a parliamentary party. It isn't that I doubt he could do it, despite my reservations... but there is always disappointment when fresh, young and new leaders finally get their hands on the wheel. Question is whether or not that initial honeymoon period will keep the Liberals above the NDP even after it ends, and that is something that will rely solely on Trudeau's ability to lead and show why the Liberals are more relevant than the New Democrats - or Conservatives.

There is some other interesting stuff Léger polled about, such as issues and so on. I won't go over those but if you're interested, the link is at the top or here, if you're lazy like me.

2 comments:

  1. Hmm, this is the 1 time in 20 methinks. And I do not know what their methodology is, but the GPC is not winning any seats in the Maritimes anytime soon. Although Ard Leeuwen runs a pretty strong EDA in Dufferin -Caledon, if I had to pick a likely GPC riding anywhere is Canada, that would be it.

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    1. Do you know much about the D-C Greens? I've always been curious what keeps their numbers up so well, in comparison to most of the other Green candidates in Ontario and Canada.

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