Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Ipsos Reid BC Poll: 48% NDP, 35% BC Lib, 9% BC Con

More sort-of good news for the BC Liberals in their long struggle from the depths of utter destruction, as a new Ipsos Reid poll puts the party at 35%, their highest in any poll since a February 2012 NRG Research poll.

Ipsos Reid (BC Provincial - November 26th-30th, 2012)
New Democratic: 48% (-1%) - 61 seats (=)
BC Liberal Party: 35% (+3%) - 23 seats (+1 seat)
BC Conservative: 9% (-3%) - 0 seats (-1 seat)
Green Party: 7% (+1%)
Independents: 1 seat (Huntington)

There has been very slight changes since Ipsos Reid's last poll in September, but it goes along with the recent Angus Reid polls that show the Liberals inching up slightly, and the Conservatives down a tad.

Once again, of course, it doesn't count for too much, because the NDP are at nearly 50% support. If this poll is accurate as well, then I think the Liberals have likely taken as much as they can from the Conservatives (unless the latter completely and utterly collapses) - meaning they'll need to start to take support from the New Democrats in order to become competitive again. Very much a more difficult task than kicking the Conservatives when they're down, to be sure.

The NDP dominate in every region with between 45-50% support, including in Metro Vancouver (49%). The Liberals have their best results in Vancouver (36%), and are at 34% on both Vancouver Island, and in the Interior/North.

The Conservatives do poorly, well, everywhere. They're between 8-10% in every region, even in the Interior, usually where they post their best numbers. The Greens sit between 6-8% in every region.

What is remarkable about this poll, at least to me, is the consistency of support for every party between all regions. Little variation, it seems, in the three big regions according to Ipsos. That may be good or bad news for the Liberals, depending on your outlook. Either they can push up everywhere at once with a good push - or they can't rely on regionalism to give them a healthy number of seats, even if they do poorly in other areas.


  1. No need to actually post this but …

    Surely you meant "They're between 8-10% in every region …" rather than "Their between 8-10% in every region …"

    1. Ah yes, a mistake I'm usually so careful about avoiding I made anyways. Thanks! I should learn how to proofread better.