Friday, December 21, 2012

Forum Poll: 31% Con, 28% NDP, 27% Lib, and Trudeau/Garneau Polling!!~!

Everyone's favourite pollster (except Warren Kinsella), Forum Research, has come out with their monthly Canada-wide political issues poll, showing a rather large shift in the topline vote intentions that seems to confirm EKOS Research's poll, which I didn't cover but Eric Grenier did over at 308.com.

Forum Research (Federal - December 18th, 2012)
Conservative: 31% (-2%) - 131 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Party: 27% (-1%) - 97 seats (-2 seats)
New Democratic: 28% (=) - 86 seats (+1 seat)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 24% (+2%) - 23 seats (+15 seats)
Green Party: 6% (+2%) - 1 seat (=)

Changes are from Forum's last poll out in late November, when we saw another close race for the second party - though this time it seems the Conservatives are barely above the margin of error, rather than 5-points ahead.

The major changes regionally come from BC and the Prairies, hitting the Conservatives hard. In BC they dropped from 42% in November to 32%, and from 50% in the Prairies in November, to 36% - the NDP rose to 37% in Saskitoba, which allowed them to offset losses in Quebec and Alberta.

But Ontario's regionals stayed exactly the same, 34% Con, 31% Lib, and 29% NDP. Quebec also saw relatively little movement, except the Liberals dropped from 33% in November, to 29% now. But its okay, the NDP dropped from 29% to 26%. The Bloc rose a bit to 24%, but gained a huge number of seats thanks to vote splitting between the other parties.

The other polling done concerns the difference between a Trudeau-led Liberal Party, and a Garneau-led Liberal Party.

Forum Research (Federal - Dec. 18, 2012 Trudeau as LPC Leader)
Liberal Party: 39% (=) - 158 seats (-1 seat)
Conservative: 30% (=) - 113 seats (-10 seats)
New Democratic: 22% (-1%) - 55 seats (+9 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 20% (-1%) - 11 seats (+1 seat)
Green Party: 4% (+2%) - 1 seat (+1)

As you can see, Justin's numbers haven't changed much from the last time Forum asked this question. As I've kept saying, he does have remarkably stable hypothetical numbers - even with recent controversies. I still don't think they mean much if he does become leader, though.

Forum Research (Federal - Dec. 18, 2012 Garneau as LPC Leader)
Conservative: 33% - 146 seats
Liberal Party: 26% - 93 seats
New Democratic: 28% - 88 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21% - 10 seats
Green Party: 7% - 1 seat

Garneau obviously doesn't do as well as Trudeau, though little worse than the topline numbers, meaning the respondents probably don't read as much into a Garneau leadership as they do a Trudeau one. Not surprising, given that the name or the personality doesn't drive as much passion as the boy wonder does.

But, like for Trudeau, its all hypothetical, and we really don't know how Canadians would respond to a Garneau leadership. He needs to be leader for us to do that.

2 comments:

  1. Do we have any hypothetical polling from past leadership contests? How was Mulcair doing as a hypothetical leader vs how he's doing now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only poll I remember that was in a similar vein was this one:

      https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News Archives/News Releases/94610_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Issues_Poll_(Forum_Research)_(20120205).pdf

      Of course, its Forum, leading me to believe that probably did more. Mulcair did improve the party's fortunes compared to regular topline numbers, but nowhere near to the extent that Trudeau does. The major difference there was also that the NDP had a crappy interim leader during that period, and I suspect a poodle would've improved the NDP's numbers at that point in time.

      Trudeau definitely has... "something." He's appealing to these people that Forum asks the questions to, in a significant enough way that one really needs to wonder why. Is it the name? The youth? I dunno.

      Delete