Monday, December 24, 2012

Forum Ontario Poll: 33% PC, 31% NDP, 27% OLP

Forum's sent out their monthly Ontario provincial poll, showing the NDP heavily up and confirming with Abacus Data's poll last week that the province is indeed in a three-way race, though the Liberals are a bit behind compared to November's Forum poll.

Forum Research (Ontario Provincial - December 17th, 2012)
Prog. Conservative: 33% (-2%) - 54 seats (-1 seat)
New Democratic: 31% (+4%) - 30 seats (+3 seats)
Ont. Liberal Party: 27% (-2%) - 23 seats (-2 seats)
Green Party: 8% (=)

The poll doesn't actually show too much difference in terms of seats, even though the New Democrats jump up in support. Thanks to oodles of three-way splits throughout the province, the Conservatives would earn a majority government based on the topline numbers - very similar to what's going on in Quebec as well.

The major swings are in the GTA, with the NDP moving ahead in the region, going from 26% in November, to 36% this month. Horwath's party leads in 36% in the 416 portion of the GTA (to 30% for the Liberals), and 35% in the 905 suburbs (to 31% for the PCs). Some small changes in other regions, but definitely not too much - PCs lead in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, while the NDP lead in Northern Ontario. Neither reach above 40%, however. The Liberals remain in a consistent 25-30% throughout the province.

You can check out the map of the projection at the end of the post.

Forum also did its now-usual polling on the Ontario Liberal leadership race, but also for the federal Liberal leadership race. I've picked out the interesting breakdowns (by provincial party preference):

While its obvious that there are indeed "frontrunners" for both races, these party breakdowns are very interesting.

Provincially, all respondents that gave a response chose Gerard Kennedy, 36% to Wynne's 23% and Pupatello's 20%. Kennedy's advantage seems to come from the NDP, who gave him 47%; so did the Green respondents, but they also have Kathleen Wynne a hefty amount at 40%. Among PCs, Kennedy came out ahead as well, but not as far ahead. For some reason, Harinder Takhar gains his most support among them, oddly enough.

The race is most muddled, however, among Liberals. Kennedy leads, but only by 3% over Pupatello, and Wynne not too far back. Obviously this doesn't represent what the delegates will do, but it seems that actual supporters don't have any particular preference - a product of the fact that there are seven candidates in total, and the quality of the three top candidates. It seems that among current supportive Liberals, no one has the advantage. You can maybe make the point that Kennedy could maybe siphon off the most support from other parties.

Federally, its clear - Trudeau is the favourite. Among province Liberals, he's loved. Among provincial Dippers, he's loved. Among Greens, he's less loved but still far ahead of... George Takach and David Bertschi? Whatever...

Its among PCs that things get wonky. Marc Garneau, who gets only 15% support from Liberal respondents, earns 46% among Conservatives! Talk about crossover appeal. Of course, only half of the total number of PCs in this poll answered; but that is still relatively impressive.

Its probably a product of the media narrative, that Garneau is the more "conservative" candidate, despite the supposed rightward drift of the candidates. It does make sense, I suppose - though I wonder if there are really that many conservatives interested in Garneau's candidacy.


  1. We need someone who can win Conservative votes, not someone who can win NDP votes.

  2. Also this is what the new map with this projection might look like (eyeballed it)


    The Green Energy Act is the most UNDEMOCRATIC, FASCIST Piece of Legislation In Ontario's history...

    With a record of scandals, financial mismanagement, chaos in the energy sector and upheaval in our schools, it’s hard to guess why anyone would vote Liberal next time.

    1. They're not entirely dead in rural Ontario... but there is definitely a tricky proposition next time out, isn't there, Mr. CAPSLOCK.