Friday, November 23, 2012

The Clark Tide Commences! BC Poll: 47% NDP, 29% BC Lib

Yes, for once an Angus Reid poll out of British Columbia isn't a complete mess for the BC Liberals and Christy Clark, though it is definitely not their best polling as of late.

Angus Reid (BC Provincial - November 21st to 22nd, 2012)
New Democratic: 47% (-2%) - 58 seats (-9 seats)
BC Liberal Party: 29% (+3%) - 22 seats (+9 seats)
BC Conservative: 12% (-4%) - 3 seats (=)
Green Party: 9% (+2%) - 0 seats
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

The changes are from the last Angus Reid poll, which I didn't cover but I have in my system anyways. These aren't game-changing differences, but it shows that *maybe* the Liberals finally have proper momentum building, and can become competitive again versus Dix's NDP.

The best numbers for the Liberals are in Metro Vancouver (33% to the NDP's 42%), and the Interior (32% to the NDP's 41%, and the Con's 16%). The BC Conservatives, who have gone through quite a bit of internal trouble recently, are no longer too much of a threat. This poll could be accurately characterized as a Lib-NDP fight now, with the Greens playing their usual sideshow. While 12% is still disruptively high for the Liberals, the Conservatives are not going anywhere fast with that level of support.

Is it an actual sign of slight resurgence for the Clark Liberals? Or are free-market voters sick of the Conservatives, and have no other option left? Remains to be seen, I suppose - but one good sign is that Clark is now tied with Dix on the issue of "who would be best for the economy," at 22% each - before it was a 6% deficit for Clark. Maybe, just maybe, Clark has a shot...

4 comments:

  1. This is more due to a collapse of the Conservative vote IMO, and you'll see both the Conservative and Green numbers go down as time goes on. I expect the final election-day pop vote numbers to be closer to 45% vs 35%

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  2. Its a response to the Conservative party freak show. Also the Northern Gateway issue has gone a bit quieter lately. All told, probably not enough to make a difference.

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  3. Interesting numbers. It appears that the Liberals and their leader gain popularity when the public does not see them. Unfortunately campaigns have a nasty habit of actually letting the voters see the candidates. Once west coasters see Ms. Clark again, I am confident that the Liberal numbers will plummet again and the Conservatives will make a slight rebound. No doubt in my mind that this is the high water mark for Clark and Liberals and the low water mark for the Conservatives. Of course, all this is just a little back and forth as DIX is cruising to a massive victory.

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    1. I suppose that is the important fact there, isn't it: Dix and the NDP still have a whopping advantage, and they're likely to continue with it unless Dix really fucks up somehow.

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