Monday, November 5, 2012

Ontario Forum Poll: 37% PC, 32% NDP, 22% OLP

The newest Forum poll is out for Ontario, completed over Halloween, and shows the smallest of rises for the Ontario Liberals, and a slight drop for the NDP.

Forum Research (Ontario - October 30th-31st, 2012)
Prog. Conservatives: 37% (=) - 64 seats (-1 seat)
New Democrats: 32% (-3%) - 37 seats (-2 seats)
Ontario Liberals: 22% (+2%) - 6 seats  (+3 seats)
Green Party: 7% (=)

Changes are based on that last poll out in September, which pretty much spelled the doom of the Liberals in Ontario. Despite McGuinty's resignation inbetween that period, not much has changed. The Liberals best area is once again the GTA, but third with only 26% overall; even in the 416 area code, the Liberals are third with just 28% (NDP are first with 36%). The PCs do well everywhere, and the NDP are second in the GTA, including in the much-coveted 905 area code.

Its not a good poll for us, but I'm not surprised by the results, because they make some sense. Following the Angus Reid poll earlier in October, and another poll from Innovative Research that I didn't cover, the Liberals hitting above 25%. Ontario's polls are all over the place right now, but the 25-30% range was the general average. That was low enough for the Liberals, but I thought that, hell yeah, we can definitely go lower, and we did. Now Forum is reaffirming their numbers and my expectations. Its nice to know someone agrees with my dour view of the situation.

One thing that furthers my view is that the situation has switched in terms of polling on whether or not respondents want an election held soon: 50% want one, 43% don't. Close numbers to be sure, but before that  was completely flipped. Whether its because of a backlash against the Liberals, or because they want a new Premier to face an election sooner rather than later, I don't.

Forum also decided to do some polling for the upcoming Liberal leadership race provincially. This was a mixed bag of a sort.

Forum did the whole, "if this was the OLP leader, what are your voting intentions?" thing, but including undecideds as well. You can see the list for yourself, but I'll do a quick rundown here without including undecideds, just to compare to the topline numbers, ordered with the best to worst numbers:

Gerard Kennedy: 37% PC - 31% NDP - 24% Lib (10% Undecided)
Eric Hoskins: 38% PC - 34% NDP - 19% Lib (12%)
Glen Murray: 39% PC - 35% NDP - 18% Lib (12%)
Kathleen Wynne: 39% PC - 35% NDP - 18% Lib (12%)
Deb Matthews: 39% PC - 35% NDP - 17% Lib (11%)
Sandra Pupatello: 40% PC - 34% NDP - 17% Lib (12%) 
Laurel Broten: 39% PC - 37% NDP - 17% Lib (13%)
Charles Sousa: 40% PC - 36% NDP - 15% Lib (14%) 

Kennedy tops the list both in terms of number of undecideds, with only 10%, and the only name that increases the Liberals numbers. This isn't a good sign, given that it was an increase of 2%.

The main contenders as we know them now - Murray, Wynne, and Pupatello - don't do very well, with Murray and Wynne tied. Pupatello is lower on the list.

But this is a list of people most don't know about, or care about. When the race starts going, this will be interesting to revisit, as I'm sure Forum will do this sort of polling again. But it also doesn't bode well than only one of the candidates can improve on McGuinty's numbers, and the rest can't even compete - the federal Liberals at least have candidates that match the topline numbers.

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