Thursday, November 22, 2012

Nanos Research Poll: 33.8% Con, 29.0% Lib, 27.2% NDP

We have another odd Nanos poll that isn't really supported by other pollsters (though I suppose this one Forum poll I have no details for yet may end up being that support), but is interesting nonetheless. As always, there is the cavaet about Nanos polling, which often times has odd bumps and leanings for the Liberals that tend to go against pollster trends. But this is the first time in a while that Nanos has gone two polls in a row showing the same Liberal bump, as last month's had a similar number - though I'll point out, the Liberals actually dropped in this poll.

As a sidenote, I got this poll from Kinsella's site, in which he says that Nanos is "a real pollster," alluding to his irrational distrust of Forum Research. I'd like to have a record in the internet that this is complete hypocrisy on his part, given that Forum showed very similar numbers yesterday that Kinsella implied should be dismissed. Good job.

Anyways...

Nanos Research (Federal - November 9th-15th)
Conservative: 33.8% (+0.5%) - 145 seats (+8 seats)
Liberal Party: 29.0% (-1.1%) - 101 seats (-7 seats)
New Democratic: 27.2% (-0.7%) - 90 seats (-3 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 19.3% (+1.5%) - 2 seats (+2 seats)
Green Party: 3.7% (+0.8%) - 0 seats (=)

As I mentioned, the changes are from the last Nanos poll out in October. The main changes are in Ontario, where the Liberals dropped from 36.1% to 33.3%, and the Conservatives bumped up from 33% to 39%. Quebec, meanwhile, showed an increase for the Liberals from 25% to 31.6%, just a couple of points behind the NDP, who dropped about three overall. British Columbia reverted to what is frankly sanity, with the Liberals hovering at 25.8%, instead of 40%.

I'll find out the details of the Forum poll later today, and put it up.

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