Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Abacus Data Poll: 36% Con, 29% NDP, 22% Lib

This poll completed just a couple of days ago shows the Conservatives with probably the largest lead they've had in a long while, +7% - yes, there was that Harris-Decima poll out last month, but a similar poll where the Conservatives were above 35% and the NDP lower than 30%, that was last March, an Angus Reid poll on the 27th. Not coincidentally, just before Mulcair was elected leader of the NDP.

Abacus Data (Federal - November 11th, 2012)
Conservative: 36% (+1%) - 169 seats (+12 seats)
New Democratic: 29% (-6%) - 82 seats (-58 seats)
Liberal Party: 22% (+5%) - 50 seats (+22 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 31% (+1%) - 36 seats (+23 seats)
Green Party: 6% (=) - 1 seat (=)

This poll represents a pretty big drop for the NDP and a huge step forward for the Liberals since the last Abacus poll, though it isn't like it matters too much given the overwhelming advantage the Conservatives have. In my experience though there is a bit of a Conservative lean in Abacus polls, so take that into account when looking at this poll's data - such as the 43% for the Cons in Ontario, where most polls show them below 40%.

Quebec is the most competitive area of the country, with the Bloc leads with 31% to the NDP's 30%, with the Liberals at 21%. It leads to a revitalized Bloc, and Liberal domination of Montreal. Dippers don't do well once they near the 30% mark.

Reading on, it seems like Abacus has had an uptick in the Harper Government's right/wrong direction polling, Harper's personal approval steady, and Mulcair's dipping lower. Whats amusing is the 43% "neutral" on Mulcair's personal ratings, seemingly alluding to the fact that the NDP's advertising of their new leader hasn't gotten them very far yet.

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