Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Two BC Provincial Polls... Maybe?

There is supposed to be a poll out from Mustel Group for the British Columbia provincial scene - well, one for September but was just recently released. Supposed to be, anyways - though I can only find it through this one link, and not on the pollster's home page anywhere. It was up on Wikipedia for awhile, but got taken down.

Then, suddenly, all these polls from a group called the Justason Market Intelligence group pops up... and I'm not sure who they are, though I've heard the name before. All their polls were added, and I can't find anything wrong with their polls as of this current moment... but there have been shifty polls from BC-related companies before, so I'm wary. But lets jump in.

Mustel Group (BC Provincial - September 2012)
New Democratic: 45% (+3%) - 55 seats
BC Liberals: 32% (-2%) - 25 seats
BC Conservative: 18% (+1%) - 3 seats
Green Party: 4% (-2%)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

The changes are from Mustel's last poll in the field, out in March. This is just a uniform swing, because I don't have the regionals from Mustel that I know can be provided, so this may change in the future. But as far as polls go, its very similar to the recent Ipsos Rid poll for BC. Not great news for the Liberals overall, but better than low-20's.

Justason Market Intelligence (BC Provincial - September 24th-October 1st)
New Democratic: 48% - 73 seats
BC Liberal: 28% - 9 seats
Green Party: 13% - 1 seat
BC Conservatives: 9% - 0 seats
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

This poll is more similar to the Angus-Reid poll out just last week, though a hell of a lot worse for the BC Conservatives, sitting at only 9%, their support halved from current levels. The Greens, meanwhile, do very well, even winning a seat - West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. The Liberals, though they have more support overall than in the Angus-Reid poll, they're absolutely crushed in the Vancouver area, 53% to 26%, in this poll. That's why they're down to single seats.

But that is why I'm suspicious - the Greens haven't been that high in a good, long while. Not since December 2011, in fact. And the Conservatives are pretty low, granted with good cause, but other pollsters have yet to reflect this. Justason did another poll back in March, apparently, with 45-31-14-8, with the Cons in third instead of the Greens. Of course, at the time I never heard of it either. It remains to be seen how reliable this pollster will be.

Anyways, we'll see what to make of these two polls. I've added both into my rolling average of BC - currently at 66 NDP, 14 Libs, 3 Cons, and the two independents - but I may have to revise later in the future.

2 comments:

  1. Mustel did not issue a press release, strangely enough, but this poll result is posted on their website. At the top of Mustel's website, go to "Polls/Articles", then "Political Tracking", then "BC Provincial 2009 to Present".

    Mustel hasn't released as many polls as I would have hoped.

    In any event, major BC political media seems to only report Mustel, Ipsos, and ARS poll results. Not Forum or Justason though, for whatever reason.

    It also seems that Mustel and Ipsos always have results that somewhat mirror each other while, OTOH, ARS and Forum seem to somewhat mirror each other in terms of poll results.

    As for Justason Market Intelligence, Barb Justason formerly worked for Mustel and I believe that she's reputable. It's only their 2nd BC provincial poll. JMI did numerous Vancouver 2011 municipal election polls but they were somewhat off the mark from election day results IIRC.

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    1. Ah I've found the Mustel poll, thanks!

      Thanks for the lowdown on Justason as well, I'll take a look at her track record so I can input my data right. But if he's reputable, then I'm glad; that means we'll have five pollsters active in BC. Thanks for the lowdown, RDS.

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