Wednesday, October 3, 2012

More Trudeau Polling!!1!1 and a Forum poll

Though it was already covered somewhat by 308.com, here's the regionals for the latest Trudeau "what if" poll:
As evident, this poll shows a Trudeau-led Liberal Party wiping the floor with the Conservatives, and more specifically, the New Democrats, especially in Quebec.

But more interestingly are the demographic breakdowns of this "what-if" polling. Trudeau's Libs lead among nearly all age group, except for those 65 and older (40% vote Con, 36% vote Trudeau Lib), and though the hypothetical Liberals are behind the Conservatives in terms of male voters, they lead heavily among women (42% to 26% for the Conservatives). The Trudeau Liberals lead among all income brackets except those making $80K to $100K (though mop the floor among those with incomes over $100K).

Finally, and this is the important bit, nearly a third of NDP and Green supporters would vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal Party, compared to just 10% of Conservative supporters.

Before we get all excited here, I give the same cavaet to the last "what-if" polling - it seems highly implausible that the Liberals will jump up so high simply because we put Trudeau in the leader's chair. I wish to expand further on that - I think many respondents are taking this question more as "will you vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal Party," rather than a standard vote-intention question. If not, then we're very fickle people.

Anyways, here's the Forum poll's standard results, with changes from their last poll out in August.

Forum Research (Federal - Sept. 26th, 2012):
Conservatives: 35% (+1%) - 162 seats
New Democrats: 30% (-4%) - 93 seats
Liberal Party: 25% (+3%) - 75 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 22% (=) - 8 seats
Green Party: 4% (-1%) - 0 seats

This poll has muddied the waters somewhat in terms of federal polling. While the Harris-Decima poll out last month showed a drop for the NDP, two other polls - Abacus and Environics - showed increases for the NDP following the summer months. Now we're back to the NDP being down. Canadians need to make up their minds.

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