Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Forum Federal Poll: 32% NDP, 31% Con, 27% Lib, Plus Trudeau Polling

Forum Research has come out with another dual poll today, one showing the standard voting intentions and another showing the voting intentions if Justin Trudeau was the federal Liberal leader, similar to their last poll out.

Forum Research (Federal - October 27th, 2012)
Conservative: 31% (-4%) - 122 seats (-40 seats)
New Democratic: 32% (+2%) - 119 seats (+26 seats)
Liberal Party: 27% (+2%) - 90 seats (+15 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21% (-1%) - 6 seats (-2 seats)
Green Party: 4% (=) - 1 seat (+1 seat)

A very interesting poll, if I do say so myself. The New Democrats have regained a lead in Quebec, but are still tied within the margin of error with the Liberals, 31% to 29% - last time it was 30%-29% in favour of the Liberals. But this drop for the NDP in their leader's home province isn't followed by a drop elsewhere in Canada, with strong support in Ontario (32%), BC (38%), the Prairies (48%), and Atlantic Canada (36%). You can pin the Prairies and BC numbers down to a small sample, but the Ontario and Quebec numbers require more of an explanation.

The Liberal strength in Quebec is hard to attribute - is it because of the hypothetical Trudeau leadership, which we'll see next? Or are they simple abandoning the NDP? Who knows.

On to Trudeau polling:

Its an interesting hypothetical, to say the least. Not too different from the last poll except in BC and the Prairies. The Trudeau Liberal's strength in Ontario and Quebec is more than enough to form a minority government, though I suspect at 39% of the vote, you could see a majority easily with a few well placed votes.

The main issue I have with this kind of polling is the very hypothetical nature of it; are voters really so sure in their intent

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