Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Angus Reid Ontario Poll: 36% PC, 32% NDP, 26% OLP

A new Angus-Reid poll is out for the Ontario provincial scene, and yes, it was done after McGuinty's surprise resignation on the 15th, though literally the next days after, so how much it truly sunk in by then, I don't know.

Angus Reid (Ontario Provincial - October 16th-17th)
Prog. Conservative: 36% - 59 seats
New Democratic: 32% - 32 seats
Ontario Liberal: 26% - 16 seats
Green Party: 5%

This is the first time that Angus Reid has been in the field since the 2011 provincial election, so I don't really have anything to compare it to except Ontario's seemingly main pollster these days, Forum. Compared to Forum's last poll, which was absolute hell for the Liberals, this is a lot better - though still not great. The only place the Liberals lead in this poll is in the City of Toronto (or the "416 area code" according to this poll) proper, 38% to the NDP's 34%. Its not bad for the Liberals, but it still represents a nearly 10-point drop from the election (47%), and quite a few seats stolen by the New Democrats.

Where the Liberals really end up getting killed is in the outer 905 area code, aka Peel/Halton/Durham/York, and Hamilton/Niagara as well. According to this poll, only 24% of respondents supported the Liberals in the 905, and 29% in Hamilton/Niagara. If you include the entire GTA, where the Liberals outpaced the PCs by 12% in the election, they'd now lag behind both the NDP and PCs. Not a good sign.

Here's an accompanying map just to show how bad this is - again, not as bad as Forum's results, but still very frightening.

Speaking of some frightening things, OMG NO DALTON!!!1!??

The race to replace McGuinty will come to a head on January 26th, and unlike the federal race, this will be an antiquated delegated convention. I know, I know, we all want OMOV, but it ain't happening this time around.

I'm not sure who is running, though I know two people who aren't - current Finance Minister Dwight Duncan and former Finance Minister Greg Sorbara. Now, I'm not saying these gentlemen wouldn't be great candidates... but I feel absolutely fine without them in there. I think its time for a new face not connected either with the inner core of the McGuinty regime, like Duncan and Sorbara were - or weren't apart of the 1996 leadership race, like Duncan was. And yes, this includes Gerard Kennedy. I would highly prefer Kennedy stay out of this race, maybe focus on coming back federally as an MP or something. I think the man makes a great Minister, but I don't like the idea of him as a leader. At least, not at this point.

There is one person I would love to see run, and that is Kathleen Wynne, our current Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing/Aboriginal Affairs, and former minister in Education and Transportation. I absolutely adore Wynne as a capable politician that has done well in every portfolio so far given to her, not to mention the great takedown of John Tory in 2007. I would also like to see former Hamilton Mountain MPP Sophia Aggelonitis run, simply because I've met her personally at least twice, and she's one of the most personable politicians I have met (I'll also throw in Kirsty Duncan as another one of the most personable people I know that I'd love to see run for a leadership position).

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