Angus Reid (Ontario Provincial - October 16th-17th)
Prog. Conservative: 36% - 59 seats
New Democratic: 32% - 32 seats
Ontario Liberal: 26% - 16 seats
Green Party: 5%
This is the first time that Angus Reid has been in the field since the 2011 provincial election, so I don't really have anything to compare it to except Ontario's seemingly main pollster these days, Forum. Compared to Forum's last poll, which was absolute hell for the Liberals, this is a lot better - though still not great. The only place the Liberals lead in this poll is in the City of Toronto (or the "416 area code" according to this poll) proper, 38% to the NDP's 34%. Its not bad for the Liberals, but it still represents a nearly 10-point drop from the election (47%), and quite a few seats stolen by the New Democrats.
Where the Liberals really end up getting killed is in the outer 905 area code, aka Peel/Halton/Durham/York, and Hamilton/Niagara as well. According to this poll, only 24% of respondents supported the Liberals in the 905, and 29% in Hamilton/Niagara. If you include the entire GTA, where the Liberals outpaced the PCs by 12% in the election, they'd now lag behind both the NDP and PCs. Not a good sign.
Here's an accompanying map just to show how bad this is - again, not as bad as Forum's results, but still very frightening.
Speaking of some frightening things, OMG NO DALTON!!!1!??
The race to replace McGuinty will come to a head on January 26th, and unlike the federal race, this will be an antiquated delegated convention. I know, I know, we all want OMOV, but it ain't happening this time around.
I'm not sure who is running, though I know two people who aren't - current Finance Minister Dwight Duncan and former Finance Minister Greg Sorbara. Now, I'm not saying these gentlemen wouldn't be great candidates... but I feel absolutely fine without them in there. I think its time for a new face not connected either with the inner core of the McGuinty regime, like Duncan and Sorbara were - or weren't apart of the 1996 leadership race, like Duncan was. And yes, this includes Gerard Kennedy. I would highly prefer Kennedy stay out of this race, maybe focus on coming back federally as an MP or something. I think the man makes a great Minister, but I don't like the idea of him as a leader. At least, not at this point.
There is one person I would love to see run, and that is Kathleen Wynne, our current Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing/Aboriginal Affairs, and former minister in Education and Transportation. I absolutely adore Wynne as a capable politician that has done well in every portfolio so far given to her, not to mention the great takedown of John Tory in 2007. I would also like to see former Hamilton Mountain MPP Sophia Aggelonitis run, simply because I've met her personally at least twice, and she's one of the most personable politicians I have met (I'll also throw in Kirsty Duncan as another one of the most personable people I know that I'd love to see run for a leadership position).