Thursday, October 25, 2012

A Detailed Version of "Justin's Quebec"

While I didn't originally post it, consider this an unendorsed and non-official follow-up to Warren Kinsella's brief post on a new CROP poll out of Quebec, showing Justin Trudeau kicking ass federally in la belle province (sort of).

CROP (Québec Federal with Justin Trudeau as LPC Leader - October 2012)
Parti libéral: 36% - 37 seats
Néo-démocratique: 30% - 34 seats
Conservateur: 11% - 4 seats
Bloc Québécois: 19% - 3 seats
Parti vert: 3%

This supposed 6-point lead translates into a 30 more seats for the Liberals (under a 338-seat House, remember that), while the NDP maintain a healthy number of seats, though far less than the 59 they won in 2011. Based on the old 308-seat numbers, it would be 36 NDP to 32 Liberals instead. Odd how it works out, but that's redistribution for you.

Here's a map of the redistributed ridings with the winners of each riding coloured in, according to the results of this poll run through my projection system:

Interesting, no?

By the way, if you're interested in this map, go over to Canadian Election Atlas and take a look at Earl Washburn's stuff - he made an entire map of Canada based on the redistributed ridings, which is the source for this map above. I'll also be creating a new page that will cover the redistribution stuff I've done so far, just so its accessible for myself and others.


  1. Where do you get colorable maps from the Canadian Elections Atlas?

  2. I asked him over Twitter myself, and he gave me permission to use them. You can also maybe take it from my Redistribution 2012 page, though I know it may end up being distorted at the moment (I'm working on fixing that).