Thursday, October 25, 2012

A Detailed Version of "Justin's Quebec"

While I didn't originally post it, consider this an unendorsed and non-official follow-up to Warren Kinsella's brief post on a new CROP poll out of Quebec, showing Justin Trudeau kicking ass federally in la belle province (sort of).

CROP (Québec Federal with Justin Trudeau as LPC Leader - October 2012)
Parti libéral: 36% - 37 seats
Néo-démocratique: 30% - 34 seats
Conservateur: 11% - 4 seats
Bloc Québécois: 19% - 3 seats
Parti vert: 3%

This supposed 6-point lead translates into a 30 more seats for the Liberals (under a 338-seat House, remember that), while the NDP maintain a healthy number of seats, though far less than the 59 they won in 2011. Based on the old 308-seat numbers, it would be 36 NDP to 32 Liberals instead. Odd how it works out, but that's redistribution for you.

Here's a map of the redistributed ridings with the winners of each riding coloured in, according to the results of this poll run through my projection system:



Interesting, no?

By the way, if you're interested in this map, go over to Canadian Election Atlas and take a look at Earl Washburn's stuff - he made an entire map of Canada based on the redistributed ridings, which is the source for this map above. I'll also be creating a new page that will cover the redistribution stuff I've done so far, just so its accessible for myself and others.

3 comments:

  1. Where do you get colorable maps from the Canadian Elections Atlas?

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  2. I asked him over Twitter myself, and he gave me permission to use them. You can also maybe take it from my Redistribution 2012 page, though I know it may end up being distorted at the moment (I'm working on fixing that).

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