Monday, September 17, 2012

New Nanos Poll: 32.4% Con, 30.4% NDP, 24.6% Lib

The new Nanos poll is out for the federal scene, and thanks to a forward from my riding association's next president, Diane Elliott, I can get it out there quickly (well, for me anyways)!

This will have to be done before the Harris-Decima poll that came out recently, simply because I can't find totally detailed numbers yet.

Nanos Research (Sept 4-9):
Conservative: 32.4% (-1.2%) - 143 seats
New Democratic: 30.4% (+0.1%) - 118 seats
Liberal Party: 24.6% (-1.9%) - 74 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 20.5% (+3.3%) - 2 seats
Green Party: 5.0% (+0.6%) - 1 seat

Compared to the last Nanos poll, everyone has a little bit to worry about; the Conservatives and Liberals dropped, the NDP stagnated, the Bloc is still in around 15-20% in Quebec, and the Greens are continuing to go nowhere. It's not a great poll for anyone, though compared to the news about Harris-Decima's poll, the NDP are probably happy to be around 30% still.

Regionally, the NDP are doing very poorly in Quebec, with only 33.7% in this Nanos poll, compared to nearly 39% in the last poll, and even higher in most other polls (except for Harris-Decima, which apparently has them in the low thirties). There has been a fairly consistent trend down for the New Democrats in the province after the rise that Mulcair's ascendancy to the leadership gave them, as shown in this 308.com chart:

Current polling is putting the NDP ever lower, which does not bode well for them in the future. The Liberals rise in Quebec, meanwhile, is paying off quite well; with this poll, we'd win 18 seats in the province. All but two are within the Montréal RMR (Brome--Missisquoi and the new riding of Gaspésie--Les Îles).

But the NDP are polling well in Ontario, up at 32.9%, compared to 35.4% for the Conservatives. The Liberals aren't too far behind, though, which means the Conservatives continue to win upwards of 60 or so seats.

When I get into the Harris-Decima poll, either tonight or tomorrow, I'll be mentioning a key word: trend. The trend was the NDP battling with the Conservatives for first, often times coming ahead of them, and usually around the 35% mark. The Liberals meanwhile suffered back near, and often under, 20%. But since mid-July, the tables have seemingly started to shift. Whether it holds, I can't say, but it may be the case that Thomas Mulcair's shine has worn off; that, or the summer lull has hurt the opposition more. I'll look at both cases once I get the final numbers for Harris-Decima.

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