Friday, September 14, 2012

New Angus Reid BC Poll: 46% NDP, 25% Lib, 19% Con

Yes, its the return of British Columbian politics here on the blog, and the first time I've looked at the province since apparently May of this year, though I've kept track of all the polls since then, and have a current rolling average that I'll be outlining below.

But first, the current poll:

Angus Reid (BC Provincial) - Sept 10-11
BC New Dems: 46% (-3%) - 69 seats (-4 seats)
BC Liberals: 25% (+3%) - 10 seats (+7 seats)
BC Cons: 19% (=) - 4 seats (-3 seats)
Greens: 8% (-1%)
Others: 1% - 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

This poll actually shows an increase for the Liberals from the last time AR was out in the field (which is where the comparison is from), taking in the 3% that the NDP themselves dropped. Its not a significant increase, but its at least some good news for Christy Clark. This poll was also conducted generally after the hubbub over John Cummins leadership of the Conservatives, so Clark and the Liberals could see even more good news in future polling, especially if voters start falling away from the upstart Cons.

That's a good segue into my rolling average:

The rolling average shows a very similar race to the Angus Reid poll, except that the regionals are different in many areas - so yes, this makes it a regional swing poll.

Obviously there isn't much to say except that Adrian Dix is kicking ass in every region. The only trouble spot could end up being the Interior; though the Liberals and the Conservatives are fighting the same battles, its the NDP's worst region in terms of performance. If either the Libs or Cons gain traction, the Interior will become a battle.

The Liberals see fairly uniform results across all regions, though they're doing better in the Lower Mainland than elsewhere. Six seats isn't a lot, but its better than the big fat zeros in other regions.

And of course, the Conservatives do well so far in the Interior and somewhat in the North, though they have some strength in the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley. The three seats for the Conservatives here are around Abbotsford, Langley, and Chilliwack.

I'll be keeping up on BC's politics starting now, including its own page once I get it done.

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