Monday, September 10, 2012

Full Redistribution, New Riding-by-New Riding

Before I forget, I completed my mission to collate all the transpositions for those fancy new 338 ridings we have in Canada.

You can see them in the EditGrid widget below, though once again, I ask that you consider looking at it in fullscreen, or downloading it and using your own Excel program. Their widget just isn't that nice. Zooms too much.

Because this is a Liberal blog, I'll be commenting on how Liberals are affected by these new ridings. Just in case you missed it, we're actually down two incumbents from 2011, based on those transposed numbers. Only 32 of 34 incumbents would survive (I don't count Lise St-Denis, we're never winning Shawinigane).

But that's for later, either tonight or tomorrow, I'm not sure which. I have an education to get, then a date with my TV afterwards. Priorities, you know.

Note: my "expect incumbents" in this spreadsheet are those who I believe will choose to run in 2015 in these proposed ridings. It is, however, subjective; my criteria was based on how much of the riding was carved up, where the member lived, etc. It is mostly up there for geographic purposes, however; if you can find out which MP will run in which area, you can get a clue as to where this riding is, given that there are no easy-to-look-at maps... yet.


3 comments:

  1. Very impressive work! Do you mind if I reference your efforts on my blog?

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    1. Absolutely, feel free to use it anyway you see fit!

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    2. Keep in mind this will always look worse for the 3rd party than it actually is. That's just because the 3rd party is more reliant on islands of support and the appeal of the individual candidate than the other parties. Fedpoll has numbers for this redistribution with the 2008 results and on the surface it would have been worst for the NDP. In reality though, just because the candidate in the riding next to Ralph Goodale didn't do very well doesn't mean Ralph Goodale wouldn't have done well in the same riding. And that applies to any of the other incumbents that appear to be hurt by this too.

      And yah, great work. I'll be sharing this widely :)

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