You know when you're just sitting and waiting for bad news that you're already expecting to reach you? That anticipation for someone to confirm what you know is going to happen eventually is killer, and this Forum poll for the Ontario provincial scene definitely falls into that.
Forum Research (Ontario - Sept. 25th, 2012)
Prog. Conservatives: 37% (-1%) - 65 seats (+6 seats)
New Democrats: 35% (+7%) - 39 seats (+12 seats)
Ontario Liberals: 20% (-7%) - 3 seats (-18 seats)
Green Party: 7% (+1%)
Compared to the last Forum poll out in August, this is a severe drop for the Liberals, and it makes sense following the Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan by-elections, where the McGuinty Liberals received more bad press thanks to their crappy results in K-W; and more time has sunk in for those fairly depressing ETFO ads against the government. While it is only one poll and could be an outlier, and I do recognize that fact... these results have just confirmed my suspicions that the Liberals in Ontario had so much farther to fall than the 25-30% we've been sitting at.
Unlike most previous polls where the Liberals saved face in the GTA and Toronto specifically, they're third by a wide margin everywhere - 22% in Toronto, 19% in the 905 regions, 20% overall in the GTA.Our best results come out of Eastern Ontario, where we sit at 25%, behind the PCs and the NDP.
Those three seats that the Liberals manage in my projection are St. Paul's (with 32% of the vote), Sault Ste. Marie (with 37%), and amazingly enough, Ottawa South, Dalton McGuinty's own riding, with 35%.
To illustrate how bad this poll is for the Liberals, and Ontario in general, here's a map:
|Modified version of the Ontario ED Map on Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2011|
Make no mistake, if these Forum numbers start being confirmed by other pollsters, this will be the absolute worse possible situation for the Ontario Liberals imaginable. The NDP and the PCs, two parties with two leaders I cannot stand, would have all the momentum in the world; and the NDP have the added benefit of a popular leader, despite Andrea Horwath probably being one of the worst possible candidates for the Premiers Office, ever, in my opinion, probably only outmatched by PC Leader Tim Hudak.
The only saving grace for the government is that 52% of respondents in this poll do not want an election. This buys the Liberals some time to try and right the ship which is dangerously close to capsizing. Because make no mistake, if the numbers here were the actual results, the Ontario Liberals would probably go the way of three out of four Western Canadian Liberal parties - four out of five if you count the Yukon Liberals.