Sunday, August 19, 2012

Projection and Announcement from Teddy

Teddy here with some great news for all my fans! I've revived my old Riding By Riding Blog at it's original blogspot, with a new updated address. Those wishing to follow all my future "Personal Projections" can visit me at http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.ca/ where I will continue to project any election that tickles my fancy.

As a "parting gift" to the readers of Blunt Objects I present my final "Personal Projection" of Quebec.


You will notice a few things. First of all, the CAQ is doing very well and the PLQ very poorly. This is because I have based this projection on the current trend. With every new poll, the PLQ seems to lose a point or two to the CAQ, and while the CAQ has yet to overtake the PLQ, at current trend levels, it is inevitable. This projection actually has the CAQ with a 1-2% lead over the PLQ in the polls, while the PQ remains steady.

The projection has also been heavily updated with the new massive Leger poll so that regional poll numbers are now projected more accurately. One of the effects of this is that the QS, which I had presumed would become a much more Montreal focused party, has lost it's possible 3rd and 4th seats, due to the QS not really picking up as many votes in Montreal as I had expected. The CAQ meanwhile is doing far better in the Montreal area that originally expected, and has now solidified itself into a clear but distant second place among Anglophone and Allophone voters.

All of this, of course, can easily turn on a dime thanks to the debates tonight. There are a number of things that could happen and need to happen.

1 - Marois. The PLQ has so far been successful at making Marois look like an idiot. Some would argue that's not hard to do. Despite sitting on a Majority (according to my numbers) her polling numbers are terrible, with the PQ having difficulty breaking 35%. Marois needs to come across like a leader, and not be easily flustered. If someone can get under her skin it could prove devastating for her party.

2 - Legault. The CAQ and it's new leader have a problem. Legault is not a great speaker. Political Analysts expect Legault to falter. Legault has to do one simple thing: look like he is ready to be Premier. If he is unable to do this, you can forget about the CAQ winning 30 seats or even 20. If, however, he can come across looking like a Premier, he can easily win a majority government.

3 - David. The QS's Debate Candidate could decide the entire election. Who David trains her guns on will have an impact. If David goes after Marois, she could get under her skin. Marois is used to dealing with Charest and even Legault, but my money says if anyone can bother Marois, it is David. We could also see David ignore Marois and go after Legault. If Charest goes after him too (and I suspect he will) it could make Legault look like he is on the defensive, and this could hurt CAQ chances. David might spend all her time attacking Charest, something that Marois and Legault would be quite happy with, and it could help bring down the PLQ to 3rd place. David is the loose cannon and it remains to be seen where she will point her ammo.

4 - Charest. It is less important what Charest does or does not do than what the others do. His position is known, he is known, and he is too "old" at the game to really hit any debate home-runs, or, to have any hit against him.

What will be decided is where how the tipping points will move. Will the QS be able to blast a hole in the side of the PQ and allow thousands of voters to leave the PQ for greener pastures in the QS and ON? Will the CAQ be able to convince voters they can be trusted, and continue to siphon 1 or 2 points per day from the PLQ until they win a majority while confining the Liberals to West Island Montreal? And what if one happens and not the other? This Quebec Election has so many variables, that it is nearly impossible to project.

Still, my money is on a CAQ win.


PS
While I will no longer be posting my projections to this blog, I will still be around for as long as Volkov will have me, offering analysis and interesting numbers from time to time. I am not "going" anywhere in that respect!

2 comments:

  1. Part of the confusion for Anglophone Canadians right now is that most of us aren’t prepared to have Pauline Marois and a Parti Quebecois government be elected on Sept. 4th, 2012.

    ReplyDelete
  2. If the remaining 45 mins of the debate are like the first hour and 15, she will win.

    ReplyDelete