Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Personal Quebec Projection

Teddy here with my first personal projection for Quebec. I've also uploaded the ElectoMatic I'm using to google docs.
Feel free to use this file. If you wish a more clean version in excel, e-mail me at thenewteddy and then the part about being at hotmail dot com.

In terms of numbers, the projection is as follows.
PQ - 48
PLQ - 41
CAQ - 23
QS - 3

Each party also has a Maximum and Minimum based on the number of close second and third places finishes projected.
PQ - 70 - 46
PLQ - 49 - 32
CAQ - 26 - 17
QS - 4 - 2
ON - 1 - 0
The Greens are not anywhere near winning any seat.

A few things that may be of interest.

I project the QS will win more than just their two co-leader seats. I am projecting that a few thousand voters per riding in the core "student" areas of Montreal will switch from the PQ to the QS. This puts the QS slightly ahead in Sainte-Marie and slightly behind in Laurier. They could also challenge in Hochelaga, Mercier, Saint-Henri, and Verdun; though I would like more data to refine which ridings are most susceptible to this kind of switch.

I have the CAQ being more efficient at turning votes to seats than others, this is partly due to the data I'm using. While I've used the ADQ vote as the base, I've modified it to better match current polling trends in the various areas of Quebec. The CAQ for example seems to be doing very well in the north shore suburbs off-island Montreal, but have not been able to make the same breakthrough in the more populated southern shore.

Lastly, my numbers show Charest losing his seat. Given the changes in Sherbrooke over the last two decades, I no longer think that Charest could win his seat while losing an election. If the Liberals win the election, I think there will be enough votes to go around that Charest should be able to win, and my projections should reflect that math, but at this time with the PQ ahead, Charest seems to be in danger of being voted out of his own riding.

Edited to include:

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