Sunday, August 26, 2012

Léger Marketing Shows CAQ Boost, Péquistes First

In opposition to the recent Forum poll, Léger Marketing has come out with a new poll that shows the Parti libéral in third for the first time during this campaign - though they've certainly been third in Léger polling before.

I don't want to go too deep into a campaign poll, as I'm still updating my own projection system. But given that this has the PLQ third, though essentially tied with the CAQ, makes for an interesting topic, especially when you get into the regionals.

The most interesting one is the Montréal subregional, which was broken down first into the Montréal RMR (most likely following the province's definition of it) and l'Île de Montréal.

In the first instance, the PLQ and PQ are tied at 32% each, with the CAQ back at 23%. When taking into account just the island, however, the PLQ is currently powering ahead with 45%!! The PQ is far behind with 25%, CAQ at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 9%.

In the latter case, despite being in third, the PLQ would win 20 of the island's 28 seats, with the péquistes taking up 6 and QS the other two. That's essentially zero change from the last election, minus one or two seats on the edge.

This points to something of a disjointed result we could end up seeing, similar to the recent Ontario election. In that race's case, the Ontario Liberals suffered losses throughout most of the province, except in Toronto where more often than not they earned a greater percentage of the vote than before. In the PLQ's case, who are third in the rest of the province, they may very well end up surviving because of a consolidated vote in Montréal. Not as a government, mind you, but it could end up making it a three-way race.

The other noteworthy aspect is the CAQ's rise. While I still think François Legault is a tool, I have already started to regret my statement before that Legault was cooked. He did well enough in the debates, even winning them according to Léger (21%, over Marois at 15% and Charest at 14%), and the fair lack of anything game-changing from Charest and the Parti libéral, and the fumbling done by Marois and the péquistes, has left an opening for Legault's party.

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