Sunday, August 26, 2012

Is the PQ Natural Advantage back?

A few posts ago, I asked If the PQ had lost their "Natural Advantage" and my conclusion was yes, they had, as a tie in the vote between the PLQ and the PQ means a tie in seats thanks to the CAQ taking Francophone seats from the PQ. In that post I referred to 96 seats that are off-island Montreal in Quebec. These 96 are mostly Francophone. Looking at these 96, I now say, the PQ has their advantage back, and it's stronger than ever.

Why? How? The problem is not with the PLQ anymore, it is with the CAQ. Polls show the PQ and CAQ are just about tied for these 96 seats, and while the PQ will do well in all of them, the CAQ will not. The PQ, for example, will sweep the north on these numbers, taking seats like Chicoutimi, Dubuc, Duplessis, Jonquiere, Lac-Saint-Jean, Rene-Levesque, Roberval, Ungava, Abitibi-Est, Abitibi-Ouest, and Ungava, while the CAQ's only shot here is in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, and even that is iffy. Most of these ridings will see the PQ with somewhere around 45% of the vote defeat the Liberals and CAQ tied for 20%

Quebec City is the opposite. The CAQ will sweep the area at these support levels, but the PQ is weak here. In the ridings south of Quebec City (In this case, both Beauce ridings, Arthabaska, Bellechasse, and Lotbiniere-Frontenac) the PQ will average 15% here while the CAQ sweeps them with 50%. The same is true to a lesser extent in Quebec City itself.

Where the PQ defeats the CAQ, the CAQ has a "respectable showing", but where the CAQ defeats the PQ, it curbstomps them. This means the PQ vote is more efficient than the CAQ vote is. Additionally, with the PLQ starting to falter, more and more seats in Montreal could fall to the PQ (even if the PQ remains stable) as PLQ voters switch to the CAQ. The CAQ meanwhile, has little chance here outside of 3 ridings (Anjou--Louis-Riel, Pointe-aux-Trembles, and Bourget) and even on a good day will probably not win a single seat on the Island.

The conclusion is that against the PLQ, the PQ has lost their advantage, but against the CAQ, oddly, it seems as strong as ever. I will keep you all updated, of course, as the polls continue to change, and this advantage, perhaps, vanishes once more.

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