Friday, August 10, 2012

CAQ looking more and more like the ADQ

Teddy here with some recent polls from Quebec.

First is a Leger poll showing the PQ at 32 ahead of the PLQ at 31. The CAQ is close behind at 27. CROP however has the PQ at 32 and the PLQ at 29, with the CAQ further back at 21. Forum shows the PQ at 34, the PLQ at 32 and the CAQ at 24.

What is important, however, are not these top-line numbers, but rather, the distribution of support. In the Forum poll the CAQ is at 22% and 23% respectively in Montreal and rural Quebec, but at 37% in the Quebec City area. CROP shows these numbers as 20% and 22% vs 28%. Leger has the numbers at 24%, 27%, and 37%. All 3 have the CAQ doing very well in Quebec City, with CROP putting them just behind the Liberals, and Leger and CROP putting them in first in this region.

This marks a change in the support pattern of the CAQ. Originally, the first polls for the CAQ had the party doing poorly in the Quebec City area, and very very well in the "suburbs" off-island Montreal. In the months since then, the CAQ has dropped in these areas (taking down their total province-wide support) and nearly the entire increase during this election has been thanks to support around Quebec City.

Looking at the last two elections, I notice something quite clearly. The ADQ did well here. Not only that, but the ADQ's former poll numbers and areas of strength are looking more and more like the CAQ's current numbers, due to the latter settling in where the ADQ once was. What this tells me is that the CAQ may not have succeeded in taking as many PQ voters along with them as they hoped. My personal voting projection matrix will be based on last-election results with the CAQ filling in for the ADQ. My complicated mathematics to make the old ADQ vote look more like what I expect the new CAQ vote to be will not be required, as the CAQ vote is looking an awful lot like the ADQ vote.

In short, the party that was built around a man, Dumont and the ADQ, has transformed into a party that is built around a man, Legault and the CAQ.

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