Thursday, July 5, 2012

Provincial Summary

Teddy here. From time to time it is I like to to look at what is going on in the Provinces. Going from East to west, I will summarize the important numbers for you.

Newfoundland and Labrador
Next election expected: October 13th 2015
Recent polling trends: One poll put the NDP in first, while three others have the Tories retaining their 15-point-minimum lead over the NDP. All polls agree the Liberals are far back in 3rd place.
Expectation: Despite the Liberals being the Official Opposition, it is the NDP that poses the largest threat to the governing PC Party at this time. Should the government lose it's popularity (and there is no sign it will) the NDP could win an election here.
Legislature: Unchanged since last election.

Prince Edward Island
Next election expected: October, 2015
Recent polling trends: Polls have been stable since 2007.
Expectation: Unless the polls or circumstances change, the Liberals can be expected to win another majority. 
Legislature: Unchanged since last election.

Nova Scotia
Next election expected: Spring 2013, perhaps later or earlier
Recent polling trends: The NDP retains it's lead, but their lead is not as strong as they'd like. The Liberals poll well even when polling unwell (if that makes any sense) and the Tories have a very stable base.
Expectation: It is very difficult to attempt to predict anything when you have a quite possible 3 way race.
Legislature: 31N - 13L - 7P - 1I (P for PC, and I for Independent)

New Brunswick
Next election expected: September 22nd 2014
Recent polling trends: While the PC Party retains a province-wide lead in all the polls, the NDP is up to 20%. The big battle in the polls is to whether that extra 10% for the NDP has come at the expense of the PC Party or the Liberals.
Expectation: If the NDP can retain these levels of support they could win a half dozen seats in the legislature. Their leader, however (at least as I see it) has displayed he has 0 political instinct. If someone like Godin were to lead the party, he could sweep parts of the province.
Legislature: Unchanged since last election (at least with regard to party standings)

In order to save the largest provinces for last, I tend to jump across to the Western provinces here.

Next election expected: Either October 6th 2015, or, April 19th 2016 (depending on the date of the Federal election)
Recent polling trends: No significant polls out since the last election, however, there is no reason to think that much has changed.
Expectation: The Tories will need to convince voters it is time for a change. The failed to do this last time, and unless they can do so next time, the result will be the same.
Legislature: Unchanged since last election. 

Next election expected: November 2nd 2015
Recent polling trends: The Saskatchewan Party retains a massive lead over the NDP
Expectation: Unless the Sask Party somehow manages to do some terrible governing, or, involves itself in a horrible scandal, or, splits in two; I do not see any way at all they can lose the next election.
Legislature: Unchanged since last election.

Next election expected: Between March 1st and May 31st, 2016
Recent polling trends: Wildrose is up again...
Expectation: Since everyone's predictions last time were so wrong, it might seem a bit foolish to make another, but I would expect that Wildrose - now a much more "known" quantity - could actually win this time, and by win, I mean on election night itself.
Legislature: Unchanged since last election.

British Columbia
Next election expected: May 14th 2013
Recent polling trends: The NDP has had a lead of at least 14 points all year
Expectation: The NDP is generally expected by most to win a huge majority. The big question is what kind of impact the provincial Conservative party will have now that they are polling between 15% and 20%
Legislature: 46L - 36N - 1C - 2I

Next election expected: Any time really
Recent polling trends: In general, 35P - 30N - 25L, but that involves a lot of rounding.
Expectation: Hard to say. I have a suspicion the Liberal numbers will not stay where they are should an election be called. McGunity will make another plea to the voters, and one of two things will happen. Either voters will agree with what he is saying, bleed off the PC party and NDP, and vote the Liberals in to another majority, or, voters will decide they've had enough of McGunity, and that they want change, and the Liberal numbers will tank. Which of these two will happen, however, I can not say.
Legislature: 53L - 36P - 17N - 1V (V for Vacancy)

Next election expected: Fall of 2012, or, Spring of 2013
Recent polling trends: A mess. In general, a horse-race between the Liberals and PQ. 
Expectation: Politics is so fluid in Quebec right now that trying to make a hard guess is difficult. However, with QS polling at near 3 times their previous result, and the CAQ clearly having taken a bite out of the PQ's right wing, I would dare to saw the PQ is not going to do as well as expected. The election might result in a minority.
Legislature: Another mess. 64 PLQ members, 47 for the PQ, 9 CAQ, 1 QS, 1 "Option Nationale" and 2 Independents, plus a Vacancy. 

1 comment:

  1. You'll want to correct the Nova Scotia party standings. It is currently 7 PC not 10 PC.